Tonight Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys will host Terry McLaurin and the Washington Football Team. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 16 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 16 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Point Spread: Cowboys -9.5 (-110)
OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for money lines and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model gives this bet a 55% chance of winning with a 3% expected ROI, making it the best game line bet of the night.
Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards: Over 223.5 (-115)
Taylor Heinicke is projected for 247.4 passing yards according to OddsShopper. Heinicke is back after clearing COVID-19 protocols. On the plus side for this bet, the Dallas passing defense is No. 22 allowing 245.6 passing yards per game this season. On the minus side for this bet, Heinicke passed for just 122 yards against Dallas two weeks ago. He also had just a 44% completion percentage when he has been at 66.5% on the season. I am willing to chalk up two weeks ago to a bad game and place a bet here. The expected win rate is 63% and the expected ROI was 19% when the line was at -112.
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Michael Gallup Yards Receiving: Over 46.5 (-110)
OddsShopper projects Michael Gallup for 55.8 yards. Gallup averages 50.85 yards per game but has only gone over this total in two of eight games played. The good news is one of those two games was against Washington two weeks ago, where he had 60 receiving yards. This bet has a 60% expected win rate with a 14% expected ROI.
Amari Cooper Receptions: Over 4.5 (+110)
Amari Cooper is projected for 4.8 receptions according to OddsShopper. Cooper averages 4.42 receptions per game. Two weeks ago, Cooper had five receptions against Washington, and as stated earlier Washington has the No. 30 pass defense. This bet has a 54% expected win rate. When the line was at +115, the expected ROI was 15%. There’s still some value at +110.
Amari Cooper Receiving Yards: Over 52.5 (-115)
Amari Cooper is projected for 61.4 receiving yards according to OddsShopper. Cooper averages 56.92 receiving yards per game. Two weeks ago, he had 51 yards two weeks ago. This bet has a 58% expected win rate and a 10% expected ROI.
At this point, there are not any prop bets higher than 10% expected ROI. The next bet is my favorite one below 10% expected ROI.
Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards: Over 59.5 (-115)
OddsShopper projected Terry McLaurin for 66.8 receiving yards. Two weeks ago, McLaurin did not catch a pass and went into the concussion protocol. He will be looking for a bounceback tonight in primetime. He averages 61.36 yards per game and he has gone over 59.5 yards in six of fourteen games this season. Dallas’ pass defense is just No. 22 and McLaurin should have a good game tonight. This bet has an expected ROI of 5%.
One Game Parlay (+450)
The best one-game parlay is: Gallup over 39.5 yards receiving (55.8 projected), Elliott over 49.5 yards rushing (68.6 projected), and Heinicke over 244.5 yards passing (247.4 projected). If all three legs hit, the return is 4.5x the wager.
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