NFL Best Bets: Week 16 Thursday Night Football Odds & Picks

Tonight Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans will host Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 16 Thursday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.

BetMGM Week 16 NFL Best Bets: Thursday Night Football

Moneyline: Titans +140

OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point total the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point total. The same is true for money lines and point spreads in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model gives Tennessee a 46% chance of winning the game, and the +140 line BetMGM has set gives them a 41.67% chance of winning the game. This bet is the best traditional bet of the night.

Deebo Samuel Yards Receiving: Over 42.5 (-111)

OddsShopper projects Deebo Samuel for 68.5 yards receiving. Samuel is averaging 83.69 yards per game this season and has gone over this total in 10 of 13 games. Tennessee has the No. 20 pass defense in the NFL, allowing 242.3 yards per game. Yes, three of those that missed were in the last four games, but Samuel averages 17.8 yards per reception. The bet here is whether he will have three or more receptions this game. This bet has a 75% expected win rate and 42% expected ROI.

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Brandon Aiyuk Yards Receiving: Under 50.5 (-115)

Brandon Aiyuk is projected for 43.7 yards according to OddsShopper. Aiyuk averages 45 yards per game and has gone under this total in eight of 13 games this season. Aiyuk generally has had more yards than his average on games where Samuel gained most of his yards on the ground. The model is projecting Samuel to have a large day, so naturally it would project Aiyuk for fewer yards than expected. This bet has a 66% expected win rate and a 24% expected ROI.

Ryan Tannehill Completions: Under 20.5 (-128)

Ryan Tannehill is projected for 19 completions according to OddsShopper. Tannehill averages 21.4 completions per game this season. He has gone under 20.5 completions in seven of 14 games this year. San Francisco has the No. 7 pass defense and the No. 13 run defense. Tennessee is No. 30 in pass play percentage, as they run the ball 47.84% of the time. Facing a good pass defense, wanting to run the ball frequently makes sense. The expected win rate is 66% and has a 19% expected ROI.

Kyle Juszczyk Yards Receiving: Over 8.5 (-111)

Kyle Juszczyk is projected for 15.1 yards according to OddsShopper. Juszczyk averages 18.62 yards per game at 9.7 yards per reception. If he catches one pass, he is likely to win the bet. He went over on eight of 13 games this season thus far. The expected win rate is 61% and the expected ROI is 18%.

From this point, the expected ROI of subsequent bets drops off to below 10%.

One Game Parlay (+600)

Unfortunately, outside of the above bets, there are not many individual bets with favorable expected win rates that are available in the one game parlay menu. The best one-game parlay is: Aiyuk under 54.5 yards receiving (43.7 projected), Samuel over 49.5 yards receiving (68.5 projected), Samuel under 34.5 yards rushing (30.1 projected). If all three legs hit, the return is 6x the wager.

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