Tonight Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles will host Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 6 Thursday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 6 NFL Best Bets: Thursday Night Football
Point Total: Under 52.5 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point total the sportsbook provides compared to what the expected point total should be, and the same for point spreads and moneylines. The model shows an expected point total of 50.8 points, and BetMGM has the total at 52.5. According to the model, this is the best traditional bet to make. The bet has an expected ROI of 8%.
Jalen Hurts Passing Yards: Under 279.5 (-115)
When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Jalen Hurts is averaging 273 yards passing per game and has passed for under 279.5 yards in three of the five games on the year. The model gave this bet a 66% chance of winning when the line was set at 287.5.
Ronald Jones Yards Rushing: Over 15.5 (-110)
The player props tool projects Ronald Jones for 25.77 yards rushing. Jones averages 19.6 yards per game. Philadelphia has the No. 30 rush defense in the NFL, allowing 142 yards per game. If Tampa Bay gives him four or more carries, Jones should rush for over 15.5 yards easily. Jones is averaging 5.2 carries per game and has received four or more carries in every game this season. This bet has an expected ROI of 91% according to the model.
Zach Ertz Yards Receiving: Under 44.5 (-115)
The player props tool projects Zach Ertz for 33.54 yards and gives the under a 76% chance of winning the bet. Ertz is averaging 32 yards per game, and the model projects him to perform at his season average. Ertz is averaging five targets per game, which is second on Philadelphia behind DeVonta Smith and tied with Jalen Reagor. On the season the tight end position has been targeted 25.88% of the time. The model believes Hurts will complete 25 passes, and 25% of 25 is 6.25 targets. If playing this bet, it might be worth it to look at Ertz under 4.5 receptions as well.
DeVonta Smith Receptions Made: Under 5.5 (+110)
The model projects Smith for 5.35 receptions and gives the under a 58% chance of winning and an expected ROI of 27%. Smith is averaging five receptions per game. He has gone over 5.5 receptions in two straight games and has had more than 5.5 receptions in three out of five games this season. The sportsbook is projecting a 47.6% chance of the bet winning, and Awesemo’s model believes the chances are 58%. Whenever there is a discrepancy this large, it is a must-bet.
One-Game Parlay (+225)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is Buccaneers moneyline (71% chance projected), Mike Evans over 54.5 yards receiving (70.25 projected) and Tom Brady over 299.5 yards passing (322.01 projected). If all three legs of this parlay hit, the payout is 2.25x.
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