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BetMGM Betting Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13 | Cowboys vs. Saints

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Tonight Taysom Hill and the New Orleans Saints will host Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 13 Thursday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.

BetMGM Week 13 NFL Best Bets: Thursday Night Football

Point Total: Under 47.5 (-110)

OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point total the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point total. The same is true for moneylines and point spreads in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model has an expected point total of 45.8 points. BetMGM has the point total set at 47.5 points. The difference in the expected point total to the point total set by BetMGM makes under a good bet. According to the model, this bet has an expected ROI of 8%.

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Ezekiel Elliott Yards Rushing: Over 45.5 (-115)

OddsShopper is where to look before placing any prop bets. The model projects Ezekiel Elliott for 65.73 yards rushing. Elliott has gone under this total each of the last three games. Additionally, Jerry Jones said that Elliott would carry a “serious load.” Only two of the nine games in which Elliott had 10 or more carries did he rush for under 45.5 yards. The model gives this bet an expected win rate of 77% and an expected ROI of 45%, making it the best prop bet of the night.


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Juwan Johnson Yards Receiving: Over 13.5 (-115)

OddsShopper projects Juwan Johnson for 23.89 yards. The expected win rate was 73% when the line was set to 10.5 yards. With a projection that is 10.39 yards more than BetMGM is offering, this is still a good bet to make. The key for Juwan Johnson is getting three targets. In each game he has played, he has gotten either one or three targets. In every game he had three targets, he has gone over this total.

Taysom Hill Yards Passing: Over 207.50 (-125)

Hill is projected for 226.87 yards passing according to OddsShopper. When the line for this bet was 205.5, the expected ROI was 36% with an expected win rate of 72%. This will be Hill’s first game started this year. In the four games he started in 2020, Hill went over 207.5 yards in three of them. Wilson has hit the over three out of seven times this season and is looking to get back on track against the No. 28 pass defense in the NFL, which allows 270 yards per game through the air.

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Amari Cooper Yards Receiving: Over 47.5 (-115)

OddsShopper projects 61.15 yards receiving for Amari Cooper tonight. Cooper has gone over in six out of nine games he has played this season. He is averaging 65.45 yards per game, with a median of 53. This bet has a 67% expected win rate and a 24% expected ROI.

One-Game Parlay (+675)

With one-game parlays, the best play is to choose bets that have a high win expectancy in the model but a lower expected ROI than the bets above alone. The top one-game parlay for this game is Cooper over 54.5 yards receiving (61.15 projected), Elliott under 24.5 yards receiving (19.07 projected), Deonte Harris over 29.5 yards receiving (41.26 projected) and Prescott over 274.5 yards (277.6 projected). If all four legs of this parlay hit, it will pay out 6.75x the wager.


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