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BetMGM Betting Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11 | Patriots vs. Falcons

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NFL best bets betting picks today tonight player props Week 11 Thursday Night Football odds lines predictions optimal football betting advice tips strategy Olamide Zaccheaus over/under moneyline parlays

Tonight Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons will host Mac Jones and the New England Patriots. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 11 Thursday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.

BetMGM Week 11 NFL Best Bets: Thursday Night Football

Point Spread: New England Patriots -6.5 (-110)

Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for money lines and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model has an expected point spread of New England -8.3 points. BetMGM has the spread at New England -6.5. The 1.8-point difference makes this a bet to make. The expected ROI of this bet, according to the model, is 5.1%

Olamide Zaccheaus Receptions Made: Under 2.5 (+110)

The Player Props Tool is where to look before placing any prop bets. The model projects Olamide Zaccheaus for 1.87 receptions. He is averaging two receptions per game in the last three games played since Calvin Ridley left the team. The model gives this bet a 74% expected win rate and a 54% expected ROI.


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Olamide Zaccheaus Yards Receiving: Under 33.5 (-115)

The Player Props Tool projects Zaccheaus for 25.06 yards receiving. In the three games with Ridley out, Zaccheaus has averaged 30.67 yards per game with a median of 22 yards. This is a bet to make if concerned about the total number of receptions. The Patriots have the No. 8 pass defense in the league, allowing just 220.1 yards passing per game. The expected win rate of this bet is 73%, and the expected ROI is 35%.

Matt Ryan Completions: Over 21.5 (-115)

Ryan is projected to complete 23.95 passes according to the Player Props Tool. Ryan averages 24.22 completions per game, with a median of 24. Ryan had an awful game in Week 10 against a poor pass defense: Nine completions on 21 pass attempts. However, this bet has a 67% expected win rate and 26% expected ROI.

Matt Ryan Touchdowns Passing: Over 1.5 (+125)

The Player Props Tool projects Ryan to throw for 1.59 touchdowns. He is averaging 1.67 touchdowns per game, with a median of two. This bet has a 49% expected win rate, but the expected ROI was 14% when the odds were at +133, and some value still exists at +125.

Kendrick Bourne Yards Receiving: Over 34.5 (-110)

The Player Props Tool projects Kendrick Bourne for 41.47 yards receiving. Atlanta has the No. 17 pass defense in the league, allowing 246.2 yards per game. Bourne is averaging 52 yards per game, with a median of 36. Bourne is averaging 15.8 yards per catch. The expected win rate and ROI are 59% and 13%, respectively.

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One-Game Parlay (+375)

With one-game parlays, the best play is to choose bets that have a high win expectancy in the model but a lower expected ROI than the bets above alone. The top one-game parlay for this game is: Mac Jones two or more touchdowns passing (1.96 expected), Kyle Pitts under 69.5 yards receiving (59.11 projected) and Jones over 249.5 yards passing (257.03 expected).

Check out more of our same-game parlay picks tonight from Adam Strangis in his Optimal Same-Game Parlay Picks for Thursday Night Football.


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