Tonight Myles Gaskin and the Miami Dolphins will host Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 10 Thursday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 10 NFL Best Bets: Thursday Night Football
Point Spread: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected spread. The same is valid for money lines and point totals. The model gives an expected point spread of 8.8 points. BetMGM has the point spread set at 7.5 points. According to the model, this bet has a 1.3% expected ROI and is the best traditional bet to make on the night.
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Check out how Awesemo betting expert Zach Brunner is leaning in his Ravens vs. Dolphins prediction article today.
Salvon Ahmed Yards Rushing: Over 16.5 (-110)
When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Salvon Ahmed is projected for 27.33 yards rushing. This bet had an expected win rate of 78% and an expected ROI of 43% when the line was set at 15.5 yards. There is still a lot of value, and this is one of the best prop bets to make on the night according to the model.
Durham Smythe Yards Receiving: Over 9.5 (-120)
The Player Props Tool projects Durham Smythe for 17.35 yards receiving. Smythe is averaging 10.7 yards per reception, so he would need one reception at his season average to win the bet. He is averaging 2.85 targets and 2.15 receptions per game. This bet has a 60% expected win rate and had a 12% expected ROI when the odds were -115.
Marquise Brown Receptions Made: Over 4.5 (+110)
Marquise Brown is projected to catch 4.71 passes according to the Player Props Tool. He is averaging 5.75 receptions per game, and his median number of receptions is five. Miami has the No. 30 pass defense in the NFL. The model gives a 49% chance of winning the bet and had a 12% expected ROI when the odds were +130.
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Lamar Jackson Completions: Over 18.5 (-120)
Jackson is projected for 20.23 pass completions in the Player Props Tool. Jackson averages 21.63 pass completions per game and has a median of 19 pass completions per game. This bet has a 62% expected win rate.
Fellow Awesemo betting pundit Chris Giordani has three of the best Lamar Jackson prop bets to make tonight.
One-Game Parlay (+725)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is a series that projects well in the Player Props Tool: Total points over 46.5 (47.3 expected), Ravens -7.5 (-8.8 expected), Gaskin under 44.5 yards rushing (36.69 projected), Mark Andrews under 54.5 yards receiving (49.35 projected) and Jackson at least one touchdown pass (1.62 projected). If all five legs of this parlay hit, the payout will be 7.25x
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