Tonight Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will host Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 14 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 14 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Point Total: Over 43 (-110)
OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for money lines and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model has an expected point total of 45 points. BetMGM has the point total at 43 points. This bet is the best traditional bet of the night.
A.J. Dillion Yards Rushing: Under 52.5 (-115)
OddsShopper projects A.J. Dillion for 52.9 rushing yards, but has him going under 52.5 rushing yards 70% of the time. The Chicago Bears allow on average 120 rushing yards per game, however, this is a split backfield with Aaron Jones. The 33% expected ROI makes this the best prop bet of the night.
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Justin Fields Pass Completions: Over 16.5(-105)
OddsShopper projects Fields for 18.3 completions. On average, Fields completes 58.1% of his passes. If his season averages hold, he would need to attempt 29 passes to hit the over on this bet. The last time they played Green Bay, Fields attempted 27 passes and completed 16 of them. The expected win rate of this bet is 60% and the expected ROI is 20%.
After this bet, the expected ROI of subsequent bets starts to be bunched around the 10% range. Below is a couple more bets I like, but I encourage you to go to OddsShopper and sort for the most updated lines and other potential bets in this range you might like.
Justin Fields Passing Yards: Over 185.5 (-110)
Fields is projected for 197.5 passing yards according to OddsShopper. This correlates to the pass completions bet: if Fields is going to complete more passes than BetMGM thinks, then it is likely that he will pass for more yards than BetMGM thinks too. This bet has a 58% expected win rate and a 10% expected ROI.
Allen Lazard Yards Receiving: Over 25.5 (-115)
OddsShopper projects 31.8 receiving yards for Allen Lazard tonight. Lazard averages 24.78 receiving yards per game but and has hit gone over the total in four out of nine games he has played this season. With Randall Cobb injured, the belief is that Lazard will likely get more targets than before. Lazard averages 11.7 yards per catch, so three catches will likely get him over this total, however, he is capable of hitting the over on just one play. This bet has a 57% expected win rate and 9% expected ROI.
One-Game Parlay (+1150)
This bet has some of the highest expected win rates according to OddsShopper: Aaron Jones over 59.5 rushing yards (64.6 projected), Aaron Rodgers 2 or more passing touchdowns (2 projected), AJ Dillion under 54.5 rushing yards (52.9 projected), David Montgomery over 59.5 rushing yards (70.4 projected), Justin Fields 1 or more passing touchdowns (1 projected). If all 5 legs of this parlay hit, the bet will payout 11.5x the wager.
If one were to remove the passing touchdown bets, as those are right on the projection, it would be a three-leg parlay at +550, meaning one could win 5.5x your wager if all three bets won.
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