Tonight Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams will host Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 9 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 9 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Point Spread: Tennessee +7.5 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook provides compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for money lines and point totals. The model gives an expected point spread of 6.0 points. BetMGM is offering a 7.5 point spread. When the point spread was at 7, this bet had an expected ROI of 2.7%. Now that the spread moved an extra half-point, the value on this bet has gone up.
Ryan Tannehill Pass Completions: Under 23.5 (-130)
When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Ryan Tannehill is projected to complete 21.47 passes. Tannehill averages 21.5 completions per game, his median is 21 completions per game. Will the absence of Derrick Henry force the Titans for more pass attempts? The model says not likely, as this bet has a 74% expected win rate and a 43% expected ROI.
Darrell Henderson Jr. Rushing Yards: Under 76.5 (-105)
The Player Props Tool projects Darrell Henderson Jr. for 69.93 rushing yards. He is averaging 72.43 rushing yards per game with his median being 74 rushing yards per game. Tennessee has the No. 8 rushing defense in the NFL, allowing an average of 100.8 rushing yards per game. This bet has a 64% expected winning percentage and an expected ROI of 35% according to the model.
Matthew Stafford Pass Completions: Over 25.5 (-110)
The Player Props Tool projects Matthew Stafford for 26.19 pass completions. Stafford is averaging 23.5 pass completions per game. With Tennessee having the No. 8 rushing defense but the No. 24 pass defense, allowing 267.4 passing yards per game, it isn’t unreasonable to expect the Rams to pass more than their in-season averages. This bet has a 64% expected win percentage and a 24% expected ROI.
Cooper Kupp Receptions: Over 7.5 (-105)
Cooper Kupp is projected for 8.41 receptions according to the Player Props Tool. Kupp is averaging 7.88 receptions per game and has shown no signs of slowing down this season. As stated earlier, the Titans have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and it is reasonable to expect Kupp to perform close to his season averages on the year in this favorable matchup. The model gives this bet a 64% chance of winning with a 27% expected ROI.
Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards: Over 97.5 (-115)
The analysis above can be echoed down here as well. Kupp averages 115.5 receiving yards per game and the Player Props Tool has Kupp for 114.42 projected receiving yards tonight. This bet has a 67% chance of winning with an expected ROI of 25%.
One-Game Parlay (+675)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is a series that projects well in the Player Props Tool: Cooper Kupp Over 104.4 receiving yards (114.42 projected), Darrell Henderson under 79.5 rushing yards (69.93 projected), Ryan Tannehill under 279.5 passing yards (255.49 projected), and Titans +7.5 points. If all four legs of this parlay hit, it pays out 6.75x.
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