Tonight Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers will host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. There are different places to go for both game and NFL prop bets. BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 3 Sunday Night Football game tonight, and these are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 3 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Point Total: Under 50 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model compares the current point total the sportsbook provides compared to what the expected point spread should be, and the same for spreads and moneylines. The model shows an expected point total of 48 points, and BetMGM has the total set at 50. Betting the under up to 48 points shows an expected ROI of 9.8%, making it the best bet of the night compared to the spread and the moneyline.
A.J. Dillion Yards Rushing: Over 18.5 (-110)
When looking for player props, look at Awesemo’s Player Props Tool to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. A.J. Dillion going for over 18.5 yards rushing is one of the best prop bets of the night, as the model gives him a 76% chance of hitting the over and a projection of 28.9 yards rushing on the night. It is understandable why this line is set the way it is; in Week 1 Dillon had 19 yards rushing, and in Week 2 he had 18. If he can get five or more carries, there is a strong chance he will hit the over.
Aaron Rodgers Completions: Under 25.5 (-110)
Awesemo’s Player Props Tool projects Aaron Rodgers to complete 21.64 passes, with a 73% chance of completing fewer than 25.5 passes tonight. He completed 15 passes on 28 attempts Week 1 against New Orleans and 22 of 27 attempts Week 2 against Detroit. Green Bay has been passing the ball 59.29% of the time, which is 15th in the league. Also, they have been averaging just 56.5 plays per game. It would be reasonable to project them for 33.5 pass attempts on this game. Assuming Rodgers sticks to his 67.3% completion percentage, he would need to attempt 38 passes to lose this bet.
George Kittle Yards Receiving: Under 5.5 (-115)
The props tool projects George Kittle to have 4.82 receptions, and it gives him a 64% chance of going under. This is the best San Francisco prop of the night, as the total for Garoppolo passing yards has moved up closer to the projected number. Kittle has caught four passes in each of the first two games. He has just nine targets on the year, and his target share is just 16.9%. In Week 1 each of Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman caught three passes against Green Bay. In Week 2 T.J. Hockenson caught eight passes against Green Bay. If San Francisco’s chooses to target Kittle more, the opportunity will be there for him to surpass 5.5. If they continue to maintain the status quo, he will be unlikely to beat this bet.
One-Game Parlay (+450)
The best one-game Parlay at BetMGM is total points under 50.5 points, Aaron Jones over 49.5 yards rushing and Deebo Samuel over 64.5 yards receiving. If all three legs of this parlay hit, the payout is 4.5x.
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