Tonight Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals will host Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 4 Thursday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 4 NFL Best Bets: Thursday Night Football
Point Spread: Jaguars +7.5 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model compares the current point spread the sportsbook provides compared to what the expected point spread should be, and the same for point totals and moneylines. The model shows an expected point spread of 5.6 points, but BetMGM has the point spread at 7.5 points. Taking the Jaguars and the 7.5 points provides an expected ROI of 20.4%. There is reason to believe Jacksonville can keep it close; Jacksonville is No. 3 in passing play percentage at 66.85%, while Cincinnati’s pass defense allows 238.7 yards per game. Additionally, the point total is only set at 45.5 points, and Awesemo’s expected point total is 44.9 points. Generally, when a low-scoring game is expected, it is wiser to take the points on a large spread, as 7.5 points represents 16% of the total points scored in the game.
D.J. Chark Receptions: Under 3.5 (-120)
When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. There are a lot of routes to go with player props for this game tonight. D.J. Chark catching fewer than 3.5 passes is one of the best prop bets of the night, as the model gives a projection of 3.5 receptions on the night. There was a 91% expected ROI when the prop was set at -110, and the movement to -120 still makes it a good bet. Chark has caught three, one and three passes this season. If leery on this bet, another great one that the props tool likes (expected ROI of 87%) is D.J. Chark under 50.5 yards receiving.
James Robinson Yards Rushing: Over 52.5 (-115)
The player props tool projects James Robinson to have 65.78 yards rushing on the night, and the bet had an 85% chance to win when the total was set at 51.5 points. Cincinnati has one of the best run defenses in the NFL, allowing just 78.3 yards per game. Robinson has seen his workload increase each week, with five carries in Week 1, 11 in Week 2 and 15 in Week 3. If he can get over 15 carries again this week, he would only have to average 3.4 yards per carry to hit the over.
One-Game Parlay (+675)
The best one-game Parlay at BetMGM is Joe Mixon over 79.5 yards rushing (92.97 projected), Tyler Boyd over 55 yards receiving (71.59 projected), D.J. Chark under 54.5 yards receiving (50 projected) and James Robinson over 44.5 yards rushing (65.78 projected). If all four legs of this parlay hit, the payout is 6.75x.
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