All eyes in the boxing world will be on the light heavyweight title fight of Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol tonight in Las Vegas. The PPV event features two of the best in the world, set to clash at 8 p.m. ET. As always, we’ve got OddsShopper providing all of the the best betting odds across the board, as well as some of the best Canelo vs. Bivol picks and predictions tonight.
There isn’t much left to prove for Saul “Canelo” Alvarez in the ring, already recognized as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world with the hardware to back it up. Even moving up to fight at 175 pounds is nothing new for Canelo, as one of his four belts came by knockout of Light Heavyweight Sergey Kovalev. Canelo will put that same belt on the line when he faces his greatest challenge since losing to Floyd Mayweather when he squares off against undefeated Dmitry Bivol tonight in Las Vegas. Beyond the record, it’s Bivol’s intelligent approach to fights that have worn down opponents, something experts believe can help push this fight to the cards.
Bivol enters the fight 19-0 with 11 knockouts, but has seen his last six fights end in unanimous decision. Canelo’s last knockout came against Kovalev in 2019, but has seen a TKO or corner retirements in three of his last five fights. While Canelo has seen fights end before the cards, three of his last four have gone at least eight rounds — with two hitting at least the 10th round.
We’ll have plenty of avenues to venture down with our Canelo vs. Bivol predictions and best bets.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol Fight Predictions & Best Bets
Best Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol Bets & Predictions
Canelo Alvarez to Win on Points -140 (BetMGM)
This method of victory has picked up the most steam heading into tonight’s fight, and understandably so based on all of the above circumstances. Neither of these fighters is going to catch the other one sloppy or slipping early in the early rounds. Both men have seen a consistent strategy to wear down opponents. It’s a game plan that relies on winning rounds rather than one-punching opponents to the canvas. Canelo recently toyed with fighters who tried to bury him early, so expect a smart fighter like Bivol to take his time. It’s also important to remember that while Canelo has fought at this weight before, he’s moving up, which is rarely a precursor for someone bringing extra power. The last thing to consider is the reputation that precedes a fighter like Canelo, where, even if all things end up equal, he would still get the nod with the judges.
Canelo Alvarez to Win by Majority Decision: +1400 (BetMGM)
The general belief surrounding tonight is to expect a true clash between the top two light heavyweight fighters in the world, and that it’s going to the cards. The above bet explains how it gets to the cards, but not what they will say. Boxing is a tricky sport when it’s left in the hands of the judges, where a fighter’s legacy and history can be plenty to influence a decision. The safe expectation is that Bivol can’t push this fight to the distance without winning a couple of rounds, even if it’s a low number, he won’t be a punching bag for the entire night. Canelo isn’t getting knocked out either, but can’t afford to be sloppy — not that it’s in his ring history. This won’t be a unanimous decision as neither fighter will dominate more than 75% of the fight. That leaves a split — two judges to one — or majority — two judges have a winner, but one rules a draw. Expect the latter here — as shocking as that may be — where it’s just more likely Bivol’s efforts mitigate what Canelo does in the ring as opposed to a judge giving Bivol the outright victory.
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Bivol Path To Victory: Bivol to Win 3-Way +400 (BetMGM)
There isn’t anything extra or special on BetMGM to take advantage of when it comes to betting Bivol to win the fight. Just taking down Canelo is hard enough, so with a 4-to-1 return on the three-way bet, there’s just no need to risk anything more. Bivol will have to survive an onslaught of punches and most likely out-box Canelo, as opposed to physically beat him. The jab is Bivol’s best friend tonight and Canelo might get desperate if he senses the fight slipping away in the later rounds. BetMGM has a favorable return at +400, nearly 50 points better than most books, so this would be enough of a payout to not risk any weird result by the judges. The more likely path to victory comes with Canelo surviving a true boxing match that goes the distance, but taking Bivol outright would be the easiest way to cash on the upset.
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