NASCAR Busch Clash Betting Odds and Top Picks for DraftKings Sportsbook

As the curtain on the NFL season comes to a close, the curtain to NASCAR starts to open. Next Tuesday, the 9th, will mark the unofficial kickoff to the 2021 NASCAR season with the Busch Clash. With no bearing on the points standing, the Clash is nothing more than an exhibition race. However, we do have live odds on this event at DraftKings Sportsbook regardless of what it does or doesn’t mean to the drivers involved. Thus, let’s jump into these odds and my top plays for the 2021 Busch Clash.

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A New Format for 2021

Before we talk about individual drivers, we need to discuss what is different about this race compared to the past decade’s worth of Clash races. As far back as I can remember (the George H.W. Bush presidency), the Clash has always been an abbreviated race around the Daytona oval. When I was playing with Power Rangers and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, this race was only 20 laps long. That’s barely long enough for your frozen pizza to cook in the oven. In past years, the race was expanded to 60 laps giving us at least an hour’s worth of racing.

For 2021, it was announced last year that this exhibition would move from the oval to the road course. A first in NASCAR history. We’ve seen plenty of pre-season and all-star events on the various ovals (Charlotte, Bristol) but taking the Series best drivers and pairing them off at a road course is unprecedented. The importance of this being that our potential list of winners shrinks significantly. In a superspeedway style race, literally, anyone can win. It’s all just a matter of avoiding wrecks (80% luck/20% skill), being upfront when the white-flag waves and having a drafting partner to help push you or protect your lead.

Now, when the chaos and randomness get removed, winning this show will come down to skill and desire. Who can or is willing to put themselves in a position to win a race that has a measly payout structure and has no reflection on the 2021 championship?

Chase Elliott +175

When the odds went live for this race, it surprised me you wouldn’t have to bet more than you would win to bet on Elliott. Now, due to the starting order being established by random draw on Monday evening, we have no clue where Elliott will line up now. That just might be why you can get positive numbers with Elliott – for now.

Elliott could draw the pole and just sit on the lead the entire evening. Or Elliott could start dead last and have to work his way forward all evening. We simply don’t know now. What we do know though is that he hands down the best road-racer in the Series with four straight road course victories including last summer’s race here at the Daytona Road Course. Since 2018, his finishes at road courses have gone first, first, first, first, 37th, sixth, first and fourth.

You combine this stellar road-racing history with a driver who has a real hunger for racing (2020 championship, competed in the 2021 Chili Bowl and Rolex 24, racing for Team CBI at Bubba Raceway this weekend) and you have a driver who should be at the top of everyone’s board. For whatever its worth, Elliott is the only driver in this field who competed in last weekend’s Rolex 24. Thus, if track time and history matter to you, Elliott is the only driver to have recently seen and raced this road course.

Martin Truex Jr. +300

If looking for a little more juice than +175, head down the board to Truex who has the second-best odds at DraftKings. Before Elliott took the mantle of best road racer in the Cup Series, Truex was often the driver fans and analysts pegged as the best road racer. Believe it or not, Truex actually owns a better average finish (4.6) than Elliott since 2018. Although Truex has three fewer victories, his worst finish over these past eight road races is 14th while every other road race saw him finish seventh or better.

In the 2020 Daytona Road Course race, we saw Truex start third, finish third and lead 10 laps in the process while knocking down 16 fastest laps. Truex’s prospects come down to what starting number he draws. If Truex starts higher up the grid than Elliott, he may be able to ascend the lead quicker and keep the #9 behind him long enough to win.

William Byron +1800

Byron is the farthest I would go down the board in terms of longer odds yet still having the capability to win. Byron’s acumen as a road racer has steadily improved throughout his Cup career. This has been especially true in road races like Daytona or Charlotte that use part of the track’s oval. In these past three “Roval” type races, Byron has finished sixth, eighth and sixth.

Perhaps this is a product of Byron’s time behind the wheel of the simulator getting comfortable with a venue the best way he can in an era of limited to no practice sessions. Or this could point back to the Hendrick stable as a whole being the best team at road courses of late. Regardless, with his recent numbers and a Hendrick power-plant powering him, I’m looking to Byron as my favorite “dark horse” to win the 2021 Busch Clash.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +5000/ Chris Buescher +10000

It wouldn’t be a NASCAR betting article without a lottery ticket or two. In past Busch Clash races, these long odds drivers were way more viable as this event was just a condensed version of the Daytona 500. However, now that is a road race it feels like you take the best drivers – who also happen to have the shortest odds.

On the other hand, if you’re looking for a long bet who you can weave a story around with them winning – my bet is on Buescher. First off, Buescher spent several seasons under the tutelage of veteran road racer A.J. Allmendinger. In the events where Allmendinger excelled, we saw similar results from Buescher as Allmendinger took Buescher under his wing so to speak. We saw this blossom last Summer here at the Daytona Road Course when Buescher started 21st and finished fifth. For the sake of clarity, Buescher’s average running position that day was 16th so it’s not as if Buescher maneuvered his way up front early and held position.

What does matter is that, by hook or by crook, he did find his way into the top 10 late and held it in the closing laps. Could we see some reverse pit strategy to get Buescher into a position to win? I believe so. A victory, whether exhibition or not, is exactly what Roush needs and we could see the #17 team pull out the stops in order to get Buescher into victory lane.

In this same line of thought, if you want to place a quarter/ half-unit bet on Stenhouse at +5000 I can get on board with that. We saw countless times in 2020 the #37 team go off the board with pit strategy to get Stenhouse into the lead. As far as road racing talent, Stenhouse is average at best. However, if his motivation and the team’s as a whole is higher than the rest of the field, Stenhouse will have no issue pushing the envelope for a win.


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Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com

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