After an exciting, upset-filled first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, the first day of March Madness Sweet 16 begins with another four games. Let’s break down the top college basketball picks and NCAAB picks for Thursday, March 24.
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College Basketball Betting Picks & Predictions
Best NCAAB Picks: Duke +1
After beating Cal State Fullerton and Michigan State, Duke faces a trendy Texas Tech team as a 1-point underdog. Texas Tech has come on strong down the stretch with wins over Montana State and Notre Dame. Notre Dame kept it close throughout, putting a scare into Tech. Stylistically, this is an excellent matchup for Duke since Texas Tech plays without a traditional big man. Kevin Obanor and Bryson Williams are the tallest players who regularly see the floor for this team, and both stand 6-foot-8. Meanwhile, Duke possesses two elite frontcourt contributors in Mark Williams and Paolo Banchero. Both players average over seven rebounds per game, creating a problem for Texas Tech. As a team Duke ranks 33rd in rebounding and 11th in effective height, while Texas Tech checks in at 78th in rebounding and 154th in effective height. Making this matchup even more difficult, Texas Tech’s defense thrives on turnovers created, but Duke ranks 21st in offensive turnovers behind their elite guard play from Jeremy Roach and Trevor Keels. Overall, Duke’s strengths match up against Texas Tech’s weaknesses, while the same cannot be said for the Red Raiders. Backing Duke +1 in the NCAAB betting market makes sense.
Best NCAAB Picks: Houston +1.5
Perhaps the hottest team in the country, Houston defeated two strong opponents in UAB and Illinois to open the tournament. Meanwhile, Arizona drew lame duck Wright State and faced an overtime scare in Round 2 against TCU. Houston has actually moved to No. 2 in KenPom’s overall rankings and now find themselves inside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Arizona ranks sixth in offensive efficiency and 12th in defensive efficiency, but they’ve faced numerous obstacles of late. Point guard Kerr Kriisa continues to work his way back from an ankle injury, and he only managed 27 minutes in Arizona’s overtime game in Round 2. Arizona has also begun using a smaller lineup, with 7-footer Azuolas Tubelis struggling mightily down the stretch. Arizona does rank first in effective height, while Houston checks in at 95th; however, Houston is 18th in rebounding to Arizona’s third. Houston showed the ability to neutralize size in the second round against Illinois’ premier big man Kofi Cockburn, and it also has the advantage in turnovers and fouls in this matchup. Arizona ranks outside the top 200 in offensive turnovers, while Houston forces turnovers at a top-50 rate. The same goes for fouls, where Arizona often struggles and Houston excels in generating fouls. Both teams have specific advantages, but Houston looks to have put everything together at the right time. Meanwhile, Arizona’s musical chairs in their rotation remain a concern at this point in the season. Houston +1.5 is the official NCAAB pick.
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Best NCAAB Picks: Michigan vs. Villanova – Over 135
This will be a slow game, as Michigan averages 68.8 possessions per game and Villanova checks in at 65.8. While this game should be played to a slow pace, both offenses have key advantages against the opposing defense. Michigan plays primarily through their frontcourt with Hunter Dickinson. Villanova ranks 175th in rebounding and 265th in effective height, creating a solid matchup offensively for Michigan. Meanwhile, Villanova has some of the best guard play in the country, shooting the 34th-most 3’s and making them at the 51st-highest rate. Michigan has solid perimeter defense, but DeVante’ Jones still looks limited after missing Round 1 and playing 11 minutes in Round 2. Michigan also ranks 220th in overall defensive efficiency, creating another solid scoring environment. Despite the projected slow pace of play, each team has offensive strengths, pointing towards the over as one of the best college basketball picks today.
More College Basketball Picks
For more action on today’s college basketball slate, take a look at the Awesemo CBB DFS page. All of Matt’s CBB picks for daily fantasy college basketball are there, as are CBB DFS Cheat Sheets for DraftKings and FanDuel.
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