There are few better ways to win money in the NFL playoffs than looking at the odds boosts from every sportsbook. Odds boosts are the wagers where sportsbooks shift the odds ever so slightly in your favor on certain bets. In the postseason, that means plenty of chances to make some money on some those super specific prop bets. Due to limits, these aren’t going to be the huge moneymakers, but our job is to search the sportsbooks to find the best value for your betting buck. We scoured the internet to find you the best NFL odds, prop bets and NFL picks to wager on for this NFL Championship Weekend. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line Sunday, there are exciting NFL betting picks for both the AFC and NFC Championship Games. This is especially true with the crop of quarterbacks playing this weekend with three MVP-caliber seasons and the greatest winner of all-time.
So much of the odds boosts around NFL Championship Weekend are focusing on the quarterbacks, and it’s hard to blame the sportsbooks on that one. In the first game of the day, you have likely MVP Aaron Rodgers facing off with Tom Brady, the greatest winner of all-time, and in the nightcap, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen square off, two of the best young quarterbacks in the game. But that doesn’t mean the skill position players around these quarterbacks don’t deserve the love or some action, and we have one great option in both games that has nothing to do with any of the quarterbacks. We’ll focus in on the top receivers in the NFC Championship Game, Davante Adams and Mike Evans, plus we’ll dissect Travis Kelce‘s matchup against the Bills.
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NFL Odds Boosts: Championship Sunday Betting Picks
Brady & Rodgers 4.5+ Combined Touchdowns Passing (+150 DraftKings)
FanDuel is offering the same odds on Brady and Rodgers to combine for 600 passing yards, but that is worth way more than +150 odds. While Brady has led the Buccaneers to a pair of playoff victories, he hasn’t been very efficient in doing so, completing just 54.8 percent of his passes the last two weeks. The Packers haven’t allowed 250 passing yards in a game since Week 11, so it will be tough for Brady to pile up the yardage against this defense. As poor as Tampa Bay’s passing defense has been when it hasn’t created turnovers, Rodgers hasn’t dominated in the yards department recently. Rodgers hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in a game since that Week 11 loss to Indianapolis, so it seems unlikely he will throw for enough yards to make up for Brady.
Yet, it is easy to see how both quarterbacks will be able to throw for touchdowns in this game. Rodgers has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 11 of his last 12 games, including nine contests with at least three touchdown passes. Where Rodgers has not racked up a lot of yards due to an improved rushing attack alongside him, the Packers have tended to finish drives with touchdown throws instead of running it in. That is why I would also be tempted to bet on Rodgers to throw at least three touchdown passes at +170 odds at PointsBet. Brady is no slouch either in this bet as he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in his last nine games, including two in each of Tampa Bay’s two playoff games. The Packers are going to be vulnerable to the run in the red zone, and the Buccaneers know that, but do not count out Brady making a play to one of his many talented receivers.
Adams & Evans 155.5+ Yards Receiving Combined (+105 DraftKings)
The search for a better bet that didn’t involve the quarterbacks proved futile and this proved to be the best value on the board. What is interesting about Adams’ performance this season is that he hasn’t had a lot of big-yardage games this year, he’s just caught a lot of passes. Just last week against the Rams, he caught nine passes but gained just 66 yards on those receptions. He’ll have a better chance at making big plays against this Tampa Bay defense that isn’t as talented on the back end as the Rams, and he won’t be facing the same talent at cornerback either. There is no doubt that Rodgers is going to look his way early and often in this game, and they might actually be able to connect on the big plays that will help him rack up that yards.
Evans is a hit-or-miss project in the Tampa Bay offense because he is the receiver that garners the most attention from opposing defenses. He can have games where he catches six passes for 100 yards, 10 passes for more than 180 yards or he could catch just one or two passes for 15 yards. Last week against the Saints, he was targeted just three times and he caught one pass for three yards. Green Bay is going to devote a lot of attention to Evans, but Bruce Arians isn’t afraid to take the deep shots, either, and that is where Evans comes into play. Tampa Bay needs to take its shots against this Packers secondary, and Evans is likely going to be a target when that happens. Brady is excellent at getting his playmakers involved in crucial games, so it should be a bounce-back game from Evans.
Allen & Mahomes 3+ Touchdowns Passing Each (+435 DraftKings)
This is a very risky play, arguably the riskiest one we have listed on here, but the NFL odds provide enough value to make it worthwhile. Allen is the more likely of the two quarterbacks to throw for three touchdowns Sunday, but that isn’t a solo odds boost option anywhere. PointsBet is offering -105 odds on Mahomes to throw at least three touchdown passes despite the fact he’s done it once in the last five games. In fact, San Francisco is the only team to throw three touchdown passes against the Bills during Buffalo’s current eight-game winning streak. Yet if someone is going to do it, Mahomes is an excellent candidate with weapons like Kelce and Tyreek Hill by his side. The toe injury might affect Mahomes on the deeper throws where he has to put more power into it, but the Chiefs are a difficult offense to stop and most of that will come from Mahomes’ arm. Kansas City won’t have a fully-healthy Clyde Edwards-Helaire, so that will mean more time for Mahomes to air it out and test this Bills defense.
Allen hasn’t had the best postseason for throwing touchdowns, but the Chiefs defense might be the easiest he has faced in the playoffs thus far. Despite being in a rough patch when the two teams met in Week 6, Allen still threw two touchdown passes in the loss. Kansas City’s defense has played much better down the stretch but the unit still ranked 14th against the pass and allowed the 20th most passing touchdowns in the league. Buffalo arguably has more receiving threats around Allen than Kansas City has around Mahomes, led of course by Stefon Diggs. But the Chiefs can’t sleep on Cole Beasley or John Brown making big plays, in addition to tight end Dawson Knox, who has been lost in the shuffle many times resulting in easy touchdown tosses. Buffalo’s running game is in far worse shape than Kansas City’s, so the Bills will definitely need to throw the ball well in order to win.
Kelce 100+ Yards AND Touchdown Receiving (+225 DraftKings)
Kelce has caught a touchdown in five straight games and six of his last seven, and he is targeted too often for him not to catch another score Sunday. In fact, the only time Kelce has caught two touchdown passes in a game this season came in Week 6 when Kansas City thoroughly dominated the Bills in Buffalo. Mahomes has targeted Kelce at least 10 times in five straight games and eight of the past nine while Kelce has caught at least eight passes in eight of the last nine games, and the one exception was the seven catches he had against Atlanta. All of those receptions and targets should equate to 100 yards for Kelce, something he has accomplished seven times this season, including last week against Cleveland.
We’ve already mentioned how much Kelce dominated Buffalo in the first meeting of the season between these teams, but tight ends have been a consistent struggle for Sean McDermott defenses in Buffalo. Jack Doyle caught seven passes for 70 yards for Indianapolis in the Wild Card Round against the Bills. Kelce had five catches for 65 yards in that first meeting, following in the path set by Mike Gesicki (eight catches for 130 yards) and Darren Waller (nine catches for 88 yards), the only two other top-tier tight ends Buffalo faced this season. Buffalo came up with a masterful defensive gameplan last week to slow down Baltimore, but the Bills simply have never had any answers for tight ends in the past, and that won’t change this weekend. I might even go out on a limb and bet on Kelce to score the first touchdown at +850 odds from DraftKings.
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