NBA Betting Picks: Best Bets for Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Spread Tonight

A night after coming back to beat the Sacramento Kings late in the fourth quarter, the Charlotte Hornets will take on the Portland Trail Blazers out west. They didn’t have Gordon Hayward in the first game, and he is doubtful again tonight, and Devonte’ Graham remains out for them. Taking down Portland will be a tough task, but the 7.5-point spread creates some value on them here. If you’re looking for an edge on the NBA betting picks market, here’s everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.

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Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Hornets vs. Trail Blazers

Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Game Info

Charlotte Hornets (16-17) at Portland Trail Blazers (18-14)
Date: Monday, Mar. 1, 2021
Start Time: 10:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Moda Center — Portland, Ore.
Coverage: NBATV

The banged-up Blazes may not have CJ McCollum or Jusuf Nurkic, but they haven’t played like a team down two starters. They rank sixth in a stacked Western Conference, ahead of both the Warriors and Nuggets, and they’ll look to preserve their half-game lead over those teams tonight. Meanwhile, the Hornets rank eighth in a close Eastern Conference. They’re less than a game away from fifth, but they’re also less than a game out of tenth.

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Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Spread Trends and Prediction

The trends don’t point to a ton of value here, as both teams have done pretty well against the spread. The Hornets’ 18-14-1 record against the spread ranks sixth best, while the Blazers’ 17-15 record is 10th. However, Portland has struggled when favored at home, as they have gone just 4-7 against the spread when posted as home favorites. In contrast, the Hornets have gone a respectable 8-6 against the spread when playing as road underdogs.

Unfortunately, Charlotte is on the wrong end of a back-to-back, and they’re playing with a banged-up roster. They haven’t underperformed in these situations this season, though, as they boast a 4-4-1 record against the spread with a rest disadvantage and 5-2 when playing on no rest.

I use an NBA betting model to predict a spread for each game, and it slightly favors the Hornets tonight, by a 0.2-point margin. My model uses pace and efficiency data that’s weighted for rest and recent performance, and I suspect that Portland’s recent downtick in offensive efficiency is to blame for this read. The Trail Blazers may rank eighth in offensive efficiency on the year, but they’ve been the seventh-worst offense over the last three games. In contrast, the Hornets rank seventh-best.

As much as I’ve liked targeting the Blazers this season, my model points to value on the Hornets tonight, so I’ll side with them plus the points.

Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Total Trends and Prediction

Unlike the spread, the trends do point to clear value when we look at the total. Both teams have solid over percentages — the Hornets rank eighth (56.2%) and the Blazers rank 11th (53.1%). While Portland’s over percentage dips to 45.5% when they play as home favorites, Charlotte’s over percentage jumps to 11-3 when they’re listed as road underdogs.

My only concern with that lean is that Charlotte is coming off a back-to-back. Their over percentage dips to 57.1% when they play on no rest, and it sits at 44.4% in games where they have the rest disadvantage.

My NBA betting model also sides with the under. It predicts that these teams will combine for only 222.1 points, far below the posted total (230). That said, my model gives a lot of weight to Portland’s last game, which came against the Lakers. If their offense can rebound even slightly, I suspect that these teams at least nose over this total.

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Hornets vs. Trail Blazers NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping

If you agree with my read and want to take the Hornets tonight, you can head over to PointsBet for the best juice (-105), as Charlotte sits as 7.5-point underdogs across the market. Should you favor the Blazers, head over to BetMGM or William Hill for the most bang for your buck. These lines may move as tip-off approaches, especially if the Hornets decide to rest anyone since they’re on a back-to-back, so make sure to keep an eye out for any line movement at OddsShopper.

Hornets vs. Trail Blazers NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping

With the trends and my model in disagreement about the total, I am somewhat reluctantly favoring the over. Should you agree with that read, you can get the lowest total with the best juice at FanDuel Sportsbook or William Hill. If you disagree and expect a low-scoring game, head over to SugarHouse or DraftKings Sportsbook for the highest total with the best juice. As always, double-check OddsShopper to make sure that you’re still getting the best deal.

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.