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Cole K’s Best NBA Bets Today: NBA Playoff Picks & Predictions 5/6/22

Cole Karas

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After a night off, the NBA is back with two Game 3 matchups on the slate for tonight. This week’s earlier plays went a perfect 4-0, and with a few strong leans for tonight, let’s dig into the matchups. Tonight’s games feature two teams that are looking to salvage their series at home. The Philadelphia 76ers open the night playing host to the Miami Heat in a game that features a road Heat team as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 210. The night wraps up with the Dallas Mavericks as short 1-point home underdogs to the Phoenix Suns with a game total of 219. Both of these matchups should present basketball fans with far more competitive games than have been seen thus far in each series, and the lines on these games appear to be incredibly sharp.


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Best NBA Bets Today: Playoff Picks & Predictions

OddsShopper has up-to-the-minute odds for tonight’s games that range from game lines to NBA player props, so be sure to stay tuned throughout the day to lock in the best odds for the best NBA bets today.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers appear to be getting star Joel Embiid back from injury and will look to find a way to steal a game at home. To put it nicely, James Harden is clearly nowhere near the player he used to be, and in this spot the 76ers will need their role players to have an efficient night in order to alleviate some of the pressure from Doc Rivers, Harden and an injured Embiid. Thus far the Miami Heat seem to have full control of this series, and even without their experienced point guard Kyle Lowry, this team has controlled and beaten up on a short-handed 76ers squad. With that being said, the line tonight has now been fluctuating with the Embiid news being up in the air, and it cannot be bet confidently at this point.


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The play in this game comes from the total and the over 210 at -110 odds. After writing about Tobias Harris and his points props for this evening’s game, the Embiid news led to reevaluation of this matchup, which in turn led to the full game over rather than the Harris props. Leave it to the NBA to drop some game-day injury news as big as this, but it is playoff time and bettors have to be able to adjust to the news. If Embiid does indeed return, the 76ers will be able to get their offense back into form. Although he will definitely still be dealing with some injury concerns, having him back on the floor will elevate the rest of the starting unit as a whole. The Heat have been averaging over 110 points per game in the playoffs, and although Embiid may return, Miami might look to go uptempo to attack and force the 76ers to defend with high energy. What is most important here is the essential must-win aspect for the 76ers and the fact that, if they want to win, they will have to score with the Heat, similar to what the Hawks did last series when they won Game 3 111-110 over Miami. With the injury news still up in the air, play the over but only at a half unit.

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Best NBA Bet Today: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Over 210 (-110) 0.5 Unit


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Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic Player Props

In a game that will not have any last-minute injury news, the Dallas Mavericks are looking to get back into this series at home against the Phoenix Suns. Both the spread and total in this do not present anything of value, and thus the player prop market will be the primary focus. Luka Doncic has been phenomenal in both losses so far, and going back home that is not expected to change. The play to target tonight is his over 9.5 rebounds at -105 odds. Doncic has surpassed this number in three of five playoff games, but in a game that is slated to be a close one, expect Doncic to play 40-plus minutes and be active on the glass. OddsShopper gives this prop a 66% chance of winning and a 29% ROI and is projecting Doncic at 11 rebounds. With these projections, bettors can feel confident in a full-unit play on Doncic over 9.5 rebounds at -105 odds and fully expect him to show up tonight in a big way. Although it is only worth a sprinkle and he has yet to do it in the playoffs, his triple-double line is currently sitting at +360; in a must-win game at home, that feels like a pretty valuable number. Doncic has 48 career triple-doubles, which include three in the playoffs. While it is a long shot, take a stab at a small play on the triple-double.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today:


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