The bracket is set and March Madness is officially here. There are 68 college basketball teams ready to dance in Indianapolis, and as usual there was a ton to take away from what we saw during the Bracket Selection show. There were a few teams snubbed from the NCAA Tournament field, while others are in but unhappy about their seeding. All of this presents questions that need to be answered before Friday’s games get underway and before you fill out those brackets. Here are the five biggest takeaways I saw from Selection Sunday and how they could impact what we do this week during the madness.
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March Madness: 5 Biggest Bracket Takeaways from Selection Sunday
5. Who’s In, Who’s Out
The bubble is a talking point every year, and there are a few teams that were short-changed this time around. Louisville is probably the team with the biggest gripe. Technically they could still get in if a team gets eliminated due to COVID, but they felt the resume was good enough. Louisville finished 13-7 overall and 8-5 in the ACC, both seemingly good enough to make the tournament.
Utah State and Drake were squarely on the bubble heading into March. Drake was 25-4, but with a weak schedule, they are in the play-in game against a Wichita State team also relieved to be in. Utah State landed safely as an 11 seed without having to play in the first four, so the committee trusted its resume a little bit more. That was bad news for fellow Mountain West team Colorado State, who, along with Louisville, was just outside the bubble. Overall, the committee did a pretty decent job of figuring out who belongs in the NCAA Tournament, but the seeding had a few head-scratchers that we need to explore.
4. Seeding Mishaps
Seeding isn’t talked about nearly as much as the bubble, and it can have a bigger impact as the NCAA Tournament field shrinks. Some teams are forced onto lines that will put them up against top-end teams and that can change the complexion of the college basketball field. The big one that stands out to me is Loyola Chicago being forced into a game against Georgia Tech with the winner getting Illinois in the next round.
You may remember Loyola Chicago in 2018 when they went on one of the most miraculous runs into the Final Four as an 11 seed. Few players remain from that team, but don’t let that fool you, as this version may be better than the squad that made that run. This team is 24-4 on the season and has the best defense in the country, per Kenpom. They have won six straight and 17 of 18 games, hitting their stride in the second part of the season. Loyola holds teams to just 55 points per game, which is No. 1 in college basketball, and Georgia Tech is going to have its hands full. Unfortunately for Loyola, they easily could have been a lower seed and could have avoided an incredibly difficult path out of the first weekend.
3. No. 12 Seeds vs. No. 5 Seeds
Everyone filling out a NCAA Tournament bracket loves a good upset, and most people look to the 12 seeds. Basically every year at least one of these seeds knocks off a No. 5. This year there is Winthrop, UC-Santa Barbara, Georgetown and Oregon State as 12 seeds looking to make some noise. The first thing that stood out was Oregon State and Georgetown are the rare big-conference schools that needed to win the conference tournament to get in and that makes seeding them difficult. UCSB and Winthrop are more traditional 12 seeds, having run through weaker conferences en route to an automatic bid.
Let’s start with Winthrop, who only has one loss on the season at 23-1 and is getting a Villanova team that is wounded. Nova lost their all everything guard in Collin Gillespie, and that has taken the expectations away from this team. They were bounced in the Big East tournament early, and it is unclear what they have left for a tournament run. Winthrop is just a 5.5-point dog, which shows that Vegas thinks Winthrop can hang with Villanova.
Oregon State and UCSB are around 7-point dogs, while Georgetown is getting a little more love against Colorado at +5. These spreads can and will move, but all the games are in the same ballpark in terms of how the betting markets are treating the likelihood of an upset. If I had to pick one, it would be Oregon State, who impressed me with their run in the Pac-12 tournament and the fact Tennessee has some serious question marks. Keep an eye on the status of Tennessee big man John Fulkerson, who got hurt via a cheap shot in the SEC tournament. If he sits, I like the Beavers even more to pull the upset.
Awesemo’s Upcoming March Madness Tournament Content:
- CBB DFS Live Before Locks with Ben Rasa and Matt Gajewski, one hour before contest lock, every day of the tournament.
- CBB DFS Picks articles from Matt Gajewski every day of the tournament.
- March Madness betting previews of every game, all tournament long.
- College basketball DFS, betting + bracket strategy first look: Tuesday afternoon with Matt Gajewski and Ben Rasa
- Bracketology: Regional, game-by-game preview with Matt Gajewski and Ben Rasa, 7 PM ET on Wednesday.
2. Easiest and Hardest Regions
For top seeds, Selection Sunday is more about easiest road out of their region. We talked about Loyola Chicago and how difficult they may make it for Illinois, and there are several other teams in that region looking to make a run. To me the easiest is the West, where Gonzaga has a pretty uneventful road to a potential Elite Eight matchup with Iowa. Crazy things happen, but Gonzaga has to be pleased with what the committee gave them in the West region.
On the other hand, the East region is the one where madness could happen, as I think the seeding is all jumbled and a lot of teams are live to make a run. Michigan is the No. 1 seed, but they will be getting the winner of LSU – St. Bonaventure, which is no easy task in the second round. From there looms Colorado, Texas and Alabama, and that assumes they are all able to survive some difficult early round matchups. This region is the most difficult to break down but could be the one to cause destruction in bracket pools this year.
1. Finding Cinderella
I think for most people the allure of bracket contests and March Madness in general is finding the team that you didn’t know existed that can make a deep run. Almost every year, one program captivates the country, whether it is UMBC shocking Virginia or Butler going to the championship two straight years. That is what we are trying to find once again. It is amazing to think that many years ago Gonzaga was Cinderella, and now they are the favorite to cut down the nets in March.
Some of the Nos. 12 and 8 seeds we already mentioned are live to do some damage, especially if they get that first upset. Even though 12 seeds win at a much greater clip, don’t forget about 13 seeds, which have won a game in the tournament in 14 of the past 19 seasons. This year there is Liberty, UNCG, Ohio and North Texas as the 13s looking to make a name for themselves. All four of these teams have some talent and can cause problems, but Ohio has me the most interested. Virginia is dealing with COVID issues and had to cancel their ACC tournament game, and now they get a high-powered Ohio offense. The Cavaliers’ defense is impressive, but this game is worth keeping an eye on.
Despite all the challenges, a college basketball bracket is still set for this Friday. Things will change, lines will move, but just getting a tournament feels like a win after last year’s cancellation.
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