College Football Betting Pick of the Day | Colorado vs. Texas 12/29

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College Football Betting Picks: Alamo Bowl Colorado vs. Texas | 12/29

We are a few days away from the College Football playoff, but before that we have some bowl games to break down. More and more marquee programs are on the schedule, looking to finish a 2020 season on a high note. Tonight we get the Texas Longhorns and the Colorado Buffaloes battling it out in the Valero Alamo Bowl from San Antonio, Texas.

Best Bet: Colorado +7.5 (FanDuel)

Texas is a 7.5-point favorite, and the game total is 64 points. This Texas line has some value, but I am going the other way to back what I believe is a live dog in Colorado. Getting the 7.5 points is a nice luxury since I don’t see much separation between them.

The Longhorns are 6-3 on the year and underperformed high expectations. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger has done his part, and he is one of the biggest dual-threat weapons in the country. His 25 touchdowns passing and eight on the ground should test the Colorado defense, but outside Ehlinger, Texas could have some issues. To start, several players have decided to opt out for this bowl game, leaving them thin at several position. Top wide receiver Brennan Eagles and two offensive lineman are out, including their starting left tackle. This is going to put a ton of pressure on Ehlinger against a Colorado secondary that allowing just 5.9 yards per passing attempt, which is top 10 in the country.

Colorado is missing their leader on defense, but other than that, they enter this game mostly intact. Offensively they will be leaning on a rushing attack that is sure to test the Texas front, who like the offense is down a few key players. Star defensive end Joseph Ossai opting out is a huge loss for Texas, and Colorado has had success running on pretty much any opponent they’ve faced. The Buffaloes average 218 yards per game on the ground, and I believe they have a massive advantage today against this hobbled Texas defense.

According to OddsShopper, +7.5 is the number we want to target when backing this Colorado team tonight. This spread has been dropping due to the opt-outs on the Texas side, and grabbing this while it is still north of a touchdown is where the value is. If you want to really be aggressive, they are +250 on the moneyline, and I don’t hate the idea of taking a flier on that bigger payoff as well. This Colorado team is balanced on both sides of the ball, and given the uncertainty outside Ehlinger, this is a spot worth targeting in CFB today.