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College Football Betting Picks: Iowa State vs. Oregon
Even though the College Football Playoff takes place on New Year’s Day, we still have several big matchups as the week rolls on. On Saturday the Fiesta Bowl gets underway from Glendale, Ariz., featuring the Pac-12 champion Oregon Ducks against the 8-3 Iowa State Cyclones. Both teams have proven they are worthy of a major bowl game, and this is expected to stay close, with Vegas setting the line at Iowa State -4.
Best Bet: Iowa State -4 (DraftKings)
First, let’s dive into Oregon, who, like all the Pac-12 teams, didn’t get a lot of opportunities to play this year. They are 4-2 and were able to defeat USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game after replacing Washington. They always have some explosive skill position players, but this version of the offense isn’t top notch. They are led by quarterback Tyler Shough, who has an average 13 passing touchdowns and five interceptions on the season, plus a few more scores on the ground. He does enough to move the offense, but he certainly isn’t going to be confused with the Heisman-contending Duck quarterbacks of recent memory. So far we haven’t seen any word on potential opt-outs for Oregon in this game, but they could be without a few players who want to focus on the NFL Draft.
Iowa State relies on a strong running game led by Breece Hall, and I don’t see that formula changing here. He had 26 touches in the loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship, and that workload could increase here if they are ahead throughout. Quarterback Brock Purdy has dual-threat ability as well and comes in with 18 touchdowns passing and another four on the ground. The key for Purdy and the Cyclone offense will be limiting mistakes, as he has thrown nine interceptions this season and Oregon forced three turnovers against USC in their last game. If Iowa State keeps possession and avoids those turnovers, they are going to be tough to stop with their methodical rushing attack. In terms of pace, Iowa State runs only 68 plays per game on average, which is 93rd in the country. Unless they fall way behind, I believe they will try to slow the tempo as they do in most games.
This is an interesting matchup between two teams that are very different on a lot of levels. Oregon in their brief season showed flashes of their explosive offense, but I wasn’t impressed with the Pac-12 as a whole this season. Shough is manageable, but if they fall behind, I do not think they are built to really stage a comeback against an Iowa State defense that has been solid against several top opponents this season. Not to play the transitive property game, but Oklahoma, who beat Iowa State 27-21 in the Big 12 Championship Game, has finished the season strong, and to me they are far better than anyone Oregon has faced this season. I expect Hall and Purdy to lead the way and wouldn’t be surprised if this game is controlled from start to finish by Iowa State en route to a going-away victory in the Fiesta Bowl.
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