On the last Saturday of NBA action before the All-Star break, there is a seven-game slate to make our selection of NBA betting picks with the best odds available. Jumping over to OddsShopper, we’ll head to the various NBA player prop subcategories. There, we will determine the best values on the day while cross-referencing player stats, rotations and recent team trends. In addition, we’ll keep an eye on potential injuries and how those will impact the outcomes. Tonight we’ll focus our attention on player props involving Michael Carter-Williams and Collin Sexton.
Saturday’s NBA Betting Picks & Player Prop Bets | 2/27
Michael Carter-Williams, OVER 4.5 AST (+135, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Utah Jazz got their East Coast road trip off to a rough start with a 124-116 loss to Miami on Friday night. Now, tonight’s game marks the second in as many nights, and the fourth over the last six days.
Meanwhile, the 13-20 Magic have been reeling at point guard, with Markelle Fultz out for the season (ACL) and rookie Cole Anthony slated to be out through the All-Star Break with a fractured rib. This means veteran point guard Michael Carter-Williams will draw the start once again, whom we find with an NBA player prop of 4.5 assists with +135 odds on the over.
Fultz has been out essentially all season while Anthony was next to follow with a few injuries. This has led to recently starting in seven of nine games, where Carter-Williams is averaging 28.71 minutes and 5.42 assists per game in the absence of Anthony and Fultz.
While quietly posting an impressive 27.1% assist rate recently as Orlando’s starting point guard, MCW has been keeping the pace and consistency when it comes to finding open scorers. He is averaging 6.65 assists per 36 minutes playing as a starter alongside Nikola Vucevic, who is having one of his most accomplished seasons of his career. Since taking over as starting point guard for the Magic, Carter-Williams has recent assist totals of: 7, 4, 7, 5, 5, 5, and 5 (most recently, at Brooklyn).
The Jazz own the NBA’s second best defensive rating at 107.3. In addition, they hold opponents to the third-fewest points per game at 106.4. Since there’s a nearly identical pace between both the Magic (99.64) and Jazz (99.29), this should be a familiar setting. The chances of Carter-Williams to retain consistency in ball-sharing appears likely per his latest theme. I’ll take the chance of 35% on top of our investment for MCW to notch another five assists.
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Collin Sexton, OVER 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+124, FanDuel Sportsbook)
While the 12-21 Cavaliers aren’t having the season they’d hoped for, Cleveland rides a two-game winning streak into Philadelphia to take on the 76ers who will be without starting power forward Tobias Harris. Shifting gears over to the 3-Pointers subcategory on OddsShopper, we discover Collin Sexton with an NBA player prop of 1.5 three-pointers and a hefty +124 on the over. These great odds for Sexton to hit two or more 3-pointers looks rather generous at this point.
Although he doesn’t take many 3-pointers, we have seen Sexton average four 3-point attempts per game in 2021. Averaging 1.6 three-pointers made per game, Sexton is shooting 40.2% from beyond the arc and comprising 20.4% of his 23.1 points per game this season. Over the last five games, Sexton has taken no fewer than five three-point attempts per game over that time frame. Sexton’s three-point attempts have totaled: 5, 7, 6, 5, and 8 (most recent vs. Houston), while making 1, 3, 1, 3, and 3 of them.
Heading into Wells Fargo Center to take on the Eastern Conference’s top seed in the 76ers, the Cavs work will be cut out for them while missing Andre Drummond once again as Cleveland looks to part ways with the center. Without Harris, Philadelphia loses a bit of their wing presence. In fact, its defense has already allowed 12.8 three-pointers made per game to opponents this season.
The likelihood of Sexton pulling in the 24% reward looks great in going with the over. Needing just two makes from long range, the odds make for excellent inclusion among our Saturday’s NBA betting picks.
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