Daytona 500 Betting Odds Update for DraftKings Sportsbook (FREE)

We are now just one week out from the 2021 edition of the Daytona 500. As the timeline closes to the “Great American Race”, so to the betting odds have shifted for NASCAR’s season opener. Thus, let’s review where lines have evolved since we last explored the Daytona 500 betting markets.

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What’s Changed Since December?

The last time I wrote about the NASCAR futures market, Santa Claus had yet to make his annual visit. During that time of early odds, Denny Hamlin was the prohibitive favorite at both Bet Online and DraftKings Sportsbook. Flash forward nearly two months later and both books give their top nods to Hamlin still. However, the juice has lost some zip on outright bets for Hamlin as he’s now +700 on Bet Online and +600 on DraftKings.

Speaking of lost juice, Chase Elliott‘s numbers continue to get pushed. Now, he’s only +900 on both Bet Online and DraftKings. While I understand Elliott having heavy odds entering the Busch Clash on Tuesday evening (+175), it’s his numbers for the Daytona 500 that leave me scratching my head. In reality, the only thing I can peg this ascent on is Elliott’s popularity. In Elliott’s last six starts at Daytona, he’s only finished the race twice. Elliott’s average finish of 23rd since 2018 places him 22nd among active drivers in that metric.

One positive movement I anticipated has not come to fruition though. I fully expected this month leading into Daytona to become the Bubba Wallace offseason. While Wallace did win an award during the offseason, NASCAR media did not make January all about Wallace joining Michael Jordan’s newfound team 23XI. I see this reflection in Wallace’s numbers as he went from +2000 to +2500 on DraftKings. Thus, if you were waiting for a more favorable outright number, it is here. It’ll be interesting to see where this number goes after the Thursday Duels and especially on Sunday when the Wallace/Jordan combination will surely get touted a bit more.


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New Outright Daytona 500 Bets

In terms of actual winner bets, I’m still adhering to the formula I advocated for two months ago. Namely, this event is generally won by top-tier drivers on top-tier teams. Yes, outliers do win this event but ever since Trevor Bayne’s improbable 2011 victory for the Woods Brothers, this has been an event won by big names.

Thus, as I scan the updated odds at DraftKings Sportsbook I see one name I would add to a betting ticket. Although his numbers indicate that he’s a better superspeedway driver at Talladega, compared to Daytona, I still like +1100 for Ryan Blaney. While we do see this odd split sometimes with drivers, there really is no reason why one should excel at Talladega and not at Daytona or vice versa. As far as the Daytona 500 is concerned, we’ve seen Blaney excel in this race before leading 118 of 200 laps back in 2018. Last season saw Blaney finish sixth and second in both Daytona races.

Speaking of Blaney, it’s probably worth noting that DraftKings has all three Penske drivers pegged at +1100. That’s a number I can get behind for Blaney but I’m not so hot about placing that bet on either Joey Logano or Brad Keselowski. Despite driver averages hovering above 89 in the four superspeedway races in 2020, neither Logano nor Keselowski had the final results to merit any confidence in that higher number. Amongst the two, they only combined for one top-10 finish out of eight races.

Top-Three and Top-10 Bets

As we’ve gotten closer to the Daytona 500, DraftKings has dropped odds for top-three and top-10 finishes. Although DraftKings won’t allow you to parlay these picks together, these are still bets I like as standalone bets. Check with me next Sunday and I should have some PGA/NASCAR parlays to combine together.

Ryan Newman: Top-10 Finish (+210)

The headline that will be rehashed to the point of exhaustion this weekend is the 20th anniversary of Dale Earnhardt’s death. Yeah, I remember where I was when I witnessed Earnhardt Senior veer hard right into the wall. I remember being at youth group later that evening when I learned that Earnhardt had died from his injuries. However, for us NASCAR fans, we all remember where we were back in 2001. It was a major turning point for the sport.

The second most mentioned event will be the one-year anniversary of Ryan Newman’s crash that nearly took his life as well. A wreck that he still can’t remember to this day. Regardless, Newman has been a fantastic superspeedway racer in the latter stages of his career. Before finishing 36th in last August’s Daytona race, Newman had five straight top-14 finishes including four finishes in the top 10. If you worry about his psyche post-wreck, rest assured after he finished sixth in the fall Talladega race.

Chris Buescher: Top-10 Finish (+250)

Quick, who has the best average finish at Daytona since 2018? No, it’s not Chris Buescher. It’s actually Denny Hamlin at 12, thanks in part to two victories and two third-place finishes. Yet, where’s the fun in playing Hamlin at -182 for a top-10 finish?

However, the driver of the No. 17 isn’t that far off Hamlin in terms of average finish. In fact, he owns the second-best average at Daytona at 12.7. Whether in the No. 17 or No. 37, Buescher has had a knack for avoiding wrecks and finding his way forward late with four top-10 finishes including a third-place finish in last year’s Daytona 500. In fact, looking at all superspeedway races in 2020, if you had simply bet Buescher to place top 10 in each race, you would have won your bet.

Buescher is the model of consistency we’re looking for when it comes to these bets in a volatile race. In fact, if you bet Buescher to place top- 10 you may as well pair it with a top-10 bet for his Roush teammate Ryan Newman. We know manufacturers, much-less teammates, will work together for the greater good. You can bet where Newman is, Buescher won’t be far off or vice-versa.


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Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com

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