The Denver Nuggets head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks for the second time this season. They dropped the first game by a 13-point margin, as nobody but Nikola Jokic could make a shot. Both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. finished with under 12 points. Those two will need to play much better if Denver wants to win tonight. If you’re looking for an NBA betting picks edge, here’s all you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks & Odds | Nuggets vs. Bucks
Nuggets vs. Bucks Game Info
Denver Nuggets (19-15) at Milwaukee Bucks (21-13)
Date: Tuesday, Mar. 2, 2021
Start Time: 9 p.m. EST
Venue: Fiserv Forum — Milwaukee
The Bucks won the first game in this series without Jrue Holiday, but they’ll have the talented guard in the lineup tonight. Milwaukee has the edge in momentum here, as they have won five straight games, a streak that dates back to Feb. 18. In contrast, the Nuggets have only won three of their last five, and that includes a victory last night over the Bulls. That means they’ll have to play one of the NBA’s best teams on no rest.
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Nuggets vs. Bucks Spread Trends and Prediction: Bucks -8
The trends point to value on the Bucks. Their 17-17 record against the spread outranks the Nuggets’ 15-19 record. Also, the Bucks have covered more often when listed as home favorites, as they have an 11-7 record against the spread in those situations. In contrast, the Nuggets have struggled when playing as road underdogs. Their 1-4 record against the spread in such situations ranks second-worst in the NBA, ahead of only the Bucks, who failed to cover in their only game as a road dog.
The Nuggets are also 2-2 against the spread when playing without rest and 3-5 against the spread when playing at a rest disadvantage. The Bucks are 6-4 against the spread when playing with a rest advantage.
So if the trends say Milwaukee, what does my NBA betting model say? It expects the Bucks to win by only a 2.8-point margin, which points to value on Denver. It comes to that conclusion mainly because of Denver’s strong defensive play over their last three games. However, their opponents over that span — Chicago, Oklahoma City and Washington — may have artificially inflated Denver’s true efficiency.
I have to side with the trends here and take Milwaukee, especially with Holiday back in the lineup. They beat Denver by 12 the last time they met, and the Nuggets even had home-court advantage for that one.
Nuggets vs. Bucks Total Trends and Prediction: Over 235
The trends love the over tonight. These teams boast two of the highest over percentages in the NBA; the Nuggets rank second (67.7%) and the Bucks rank fifth (60.6%). Milwaukee’s rate improves to 61.1% when they play at home, and Denver’s rate improves to 72.2% when they play on the road. The fact that the Nuggets are on a back-to-back shouldn’t matter much, either, as Denver’s over percentage in games played without rest sits at 75%.
These teams combined for 237 points the last time they met, but it’s worth noting that 33% of those points — including 37.5% of Denver’s points — came in the game’s first quarter. That points to considerable value on the game’s first quarter over, which sits at 59.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Again, my model doesn’t love that call here. It projects these teams to combine for well south of this total, but again, I suspect that the low quality of Denver’s recent opponents is skewing the data.
I will confidently side with the trends and take the over. However, I am somewhat concerned that Jrue Holiday’s strong defensive play could derail it. Holiday boasts a +1.6 defensive RAPTOR, which is far better than that of his initial replacement, Bryn Forbes (-5.1). If you’re going to bet on this game, I would bet on the spread and not the total.
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Nuggets vs. Bucks NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
If you agree with my lean and like the Bucks to cover, well, you’d better get a move on. The spread has ticked up by a point, so I would try to get ahead of any future line movement by placing my bet now. You can buy Milwaukee as 8-point favorites at the best juice on FanDuel Sportsbook (-108). Should you disagree with me, head over to BetMGM to take the Nuggets as 8.5-point underdogs with the best juice. These lines will probably continue to move as tip-off approaches, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal.
Nuggets vs. Bucks NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
While I would play the spread before playing the total, I still favor the over because of the trends noted above. If you agree with my analysis, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook or William Hill to get the lowest-set total at the best juice (-110). Should you disagree and favor the under, head over to BetMGM for the highest total — or burn a half point and head to PointsBet for the best juice (-105). You can also keep track of any line movement directly through OddsShopper.
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