For better or worse, my eyes went straight to some of the biggest games of the weekend when it came to CFB odds and betting sides. We’ve got a huge Friday night matchup, along with two of the biggest games of the season on Saturday to make our CFB picks and build our college football betting card around.
Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some NCAAF picks.
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College Football Betting Picks & Predictions | Top Week 10 CFB Picks + Odds
CFB Pick: BYU at Boise State: BYU Team Total OVER 33 (-120)
*This is a Friday night game!
BYU actually opened as an underdog in this one, but swung quickly to a favorite. I was able to snag some -2.5 and -3 earlier in the week, prior to the line moving to 3.5. It’s now moved to 4 at a lot of books, but OddsShopper still shows some 3.5s on Friday at noon if you want to grab them up. Frankly, I think we see something like a 42-31 BYU win in this one, which is why I got back in on the team total over 33.
Zach Wilson is playing like a legitimate Heisman candidate, throwing for 2,152 yards and a 19:2 TD to INT ratio. He has this offense averaging 44.4 points per game in the Cougars 7-0 start, scoring at least 41 points in six of those contests — the outlier being a weird 27-20 dud over UTSA.
Boise State is a very good team, and has two good QBs. The Broncos will be competitive regardless of who’s under center. But Boise has also only played two games, and gave up 30 points to Air Force last week — who strictly run the ball. I doubt this defense will be able to handle BYU, which is why I love a high scoring cover. The value may be gone, but if you get this as BYU -4 at kickoff, I’d be happy with that.
As of Friday afternoon, FanDuel is still showing -3.5 (-106). I’m slightly more confident in BYU being able to put up a bunch of points here, and making the team total the larger play.
CFB Pick: Florida vs. Georgia: FLA +3.5 (-120)
Georgia’s defense is elite, but it’s going to be missing some key pieces here playing on a neutral field in Jacksonville against the Gators. The Bulldogs, who are 0-3 ATS away from home this season, will be without their best defensive player in Richard LeCounte, and are also missing at least one more defensive starter in Julian Rochester. Georgia’s best offensive weapon, George Pickens, is also questionable, missing last week against Kentucky.
Stetson Bennett has regresses at QB in recent weeks, tossing five picks over the last two games. That type of QB play won’t fly against the Gators, who have a Heisman hopeful in Kyle Trask — similarly priced to Wilson at the moment. Trask has elite targets downfield, and while Georgia will have its moments defensively, I also expect the Gators to be a little overwhelming on offense.
Since I don’t trust the Bulldogs’ passing attack, they’re going to have to run the ball extremely well to win this game. Georgia is certainly capable of that, but Florida’s defense recently returned Kyrie Campbell — the senior starting DT. With Campbell playing his first game of the season against Missouri, the Tigers rushed for just 40 yards on 23 carries.
I really like the matchup for the Gators this time around, and think they win outright. If taking the points (I’m playing both), PointsBet still has 3.5 on the board for -120.
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CFB Pick: Clemson at Notre Dame: CLEM -4.5 (-108)
I like Clemson to begin with, but I can’t bring myself to pass on the value we’re getting on this game at this point. Prior to Trevor Lawrence testing positive for COVID, the lookahead line on DraftKings reached as high as 15.5 for this game. Now we get is at 4.5 on FanDuel on Friday afternoon, and this one could get even closer before kickoff.
Notre Dame is at home and getting a lot of love, but they rarely can compete with these top tier teams. Freshman QB D.J. Uiagalelei played very well against Boston College last week, completing 30-of-41 passes for 342 and two touchdowns, rushing six times for 25 yards and another score. I think his rushing ability will prove crucial in this contest against Notre Dame.
As good as Lawrence is, I don’t know if the downgrade at QB is worth more than 10 points in this one. Travis Etienne will be heavily involved, coming off a 20-84-1 line on the ground and 7-140-1 line as a receiver against BC. I think the 34-28 win over the Eagles is also discounting this line, but I’ll chalk that up to a slow start with an unexpected QB change. Once Clemson got in a groove, it won the second half 21-0, and now has had all week to prep the freshman for this start.
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