The NBA Draft has already been pushed back a couple of times, but it looks like it’s currently on track to go off on Nov. 18. I figured with no plays or analysis from me on Monday, I’d use the time to switch gears a bit and look at the limited market we already have here. There are no real official plays, but just some useful info, and ideas to keep in mind as the draft approaches. Obviously, we’ll use reports closer to the draft to make the most informed NBA picks, but that doesn’t mean we don’t currently have some value on the board.
None of these are on the board at OddsShopper with the draft so far out, and on such a unique date this year. But DraftKings is offering some props that I’ll analyze.
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NBA Draft Picks & Predictions | Top NBA Draft Bets
First Overall Pick
Anthony Edwards (-235) is the deserving favorite, but he is priced too steep and worth fading in this draft. If you’re not familiar with this draft class, it’s considered pretty weak, and a lot of the top players could realistically land anywhere in the top eight picks. Edwards is a sure-fire top-three pick, but he is just not worth laying this much juice on to go No. 1.
LaMelo Ball (+195) has also seen his value decrease on the betting board. One of two draft bets I’ve made so far is Ball +350 to be the top pick. He’s an intriguing prospect that really helped his stock overseas last season, and I could see him in Minnesota or a team falling in love with him and moving up.
James Wiseman (+785) is one of those guys that’s nearly impossible to get a feel for. I’ve seen mocks where a team trades up to get him No. 1, and I’ve seen mocks where he goes No. 9 overall. I guess there’s a bit of value here, but I’d prefer to make a different play on Wiseman.
As for the deep long shots, there are two I’m considering. Usually these are dumb bets that are just throwing away money, but this is a unique class. Bet anyone you want last year, but Zion Williamson was going to be the first pick. With that a certainty, there really wasn’t anything to consider betting as it pertained to the top overall pick. This year, it’s plausible we could have an Anthony Bennett-type of surprise atop the board.
Deni Avdija (+5000) is gaining a lot of steam in this draft. He’s a well-polished wing from overseas, and his potential plays well into the modern NBA. I admittedly don’t know all that much about him, but I do know the American prospects, and they are weak. It could be a good year to take a gamble like this.
I’m very familiar with Obi Toppin’s (+10000) game from Dayton. He was the National Player of the Year last season and probably provides the safest floor in this draft. He’s versatile and ready to contribute right away. Minnesota has expressed interest in drafting a win-now player, and rumors have swirled about the potential of this being a match. Trading these top picks is going to be difficult due to how much these top picks, even in weak classes, get paid. So the Wolves may be forced to stand pat and take who they like most. This is the only other draft bet I’ve made. A cool $20 lands you $2,000 here, so there is not much to be concerned about if sprinkling.
Player Draft Position
Anthony Edwards Over 1.5 (+187)/Under 1.5 (-235)
LaMelo Ball Over 2.5 (+180)/Under 2.5 (-225)
James Wiseman Over 2.5 (-225)/Under 2.5 (+180)
Obi Toppin Over 4.5 (-118)/Under 4.5 (-104)
I haven’t made any NBA picks on of these yet, but I have thoughts on each of the four props currently available. I mentioned fading Edwards, so this one is simple. Getting pretty good plus money on him not being the No. 1 pick feels worthwhile. As the draft gets closer, pay attention to the rumors.
I see some value in actually betting Ball to go over 2.5 at the +180. While I do think he has the potential to be the top pick, and I’ve bet it, I see almost no chance he’s the No. 2 pick. The Warriors own that pick and have zero need for a player like Ball. Considering how difficult I think trading back is in this draft, I think it might be worth betting Ball as the top pick and to go No. 3 or later and profiting one way of the other. Of course, if I’m wrong and he’s selected No. 2, then it’s a double whammy.
I’d be shocked if Wiseman was the top overall pick, but Golden State could be a fit at No. 2. But we’ve already heard rumors or the Warriors being interested in players like Dwight Howard, so wouldn’t that indicate that Wiseman may not be an option? In the end, I think Wiseman is going to slide in this draft. I’d rather wait to try and get something like a pick-’em on over 3.5 as the draft approaches.
Toppin is an interesting piece in this draft. He’s going No. 5 or later in almost any mock you see but also getting tabbed as a very safe pick that can contribute right away. This draft has nothing special to offer at the top, and Toppin will contribute more as a rookie than these other names. I lean to Toppin being a top-four pick but would love to get this at under 5.5.
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