Week 9 concludes with an unfamiliar basement battle in the AFC East, as the 2-5 Patriots travel to New York to take on the 0-8 Jets. Despite a three-game losing streak, the Patriots are still 10-point road favorites, with a low total of 42.5. Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some NFL odds and picks.
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Jamison Crowder Props
Personally, I bet Crowder to go over 4.5 receptions earlier in the day at -140, and by the time I was able to write up the play, it’s sitting at -175 to -200 at most books. If you’re comfortable with the juice, I think it’s a very strong play, but you can also look to the over on 49.5 yards at standard juice. This really requires you to do some of your own odds shopping based on the books available to you.
Here’s why I like Crowder to catch at least five passes for 50-plus yards. He’s only played in four games so far this season, but is averaging 95.8 yards per game. Crowder has been targeted at least 10 times in each game, with seven or more receptions in each. Of course, we have to factor in for Joe Flacco at QB, but fortunately, Crowder did play both games Flacco’s started this year. While the Jets put up putrid numbers overall, Crowder was the only constant on offense, bringing in 15-of-23 targets for 164 yards.
Under 42.5 (-110)
Earlier in the day, I put some information on Twitter pointing to the under on the Jets team total at 16.5. While I still think it’s a terrific play, I prefer the game total now that we’re up over 42 points. The Jets are averaging just 11.75 points per game this season and have gotten even worse over the last few weeks. In the past four games, New York has scored just 29 total points, including 10 points combined in Flacco’s two starts.
The Patriots coming into town used to put us at risk of some kind of 42-10, but this just isn’t the same team without Tom Brady and all the outside weapons. New England is averaging under 20 points per game this season and if we look at the numbers since Cam Newton’s positive COVID test, the numbers drop to 12.25 points per game over the last four. This is a run-first team that’s going to grind the clock and look to the air only when it needs to. That said, I still don’t see the Jets getting a win, so a Patriots moneyline and under parlay gets you +140 if you want to go for a larger payout. OddsShopper still shows about half the books with 42.5 on the board.
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