We bounced back with a 2-0 MLB card on Tuesday, and we’re going to go right back to a couple of first-five spots I like a lot. We’ll also get back into NBA, along with analysis on the plays and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some MLB and NBA picks from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves: Miami First Five Moneyline (+110)
The Marlins are the most profitable team in baseball on the first-five line, with the majority of that production coming on the road — 12-7-2 first-five moneyline. Pablo Lopez got roughed up by the Rays in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs in four innings, by far his worst outing of the season. I like this bounce-back spot for him in Atlanta.
Prior to Friday, Lopez had allowed 8 runs in six starts in August — no more than 2 in any start — and lasted at least five innings in each one. That stretch includes an 8-2 victory over the Braves, which the Marlins led 4-2 after five. Prior to the Tampa start, Lopez was pitching better on the road, allowing 2 earned runs in 15 innings over three starts. He also fared well in this matchup in 2019, with a 2.65 ERA in three starts against Atlanta. I can’t knock the Braves offensively, as they rank eighth in MLB in first-five scoring at 3.0 runs per game, but I think the mismatch lies on the other side.
Tommy Milone will make his third start for Atlanta, allowing 8 runs in 6.1 innings in the first two combined. Factoring in his time with Baltimore, he has a 5.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP this season. Miami’s bats have come alive on the road, ranking fourth in first-five runs per game at 3.43. The Marlins have put up nine total first-five runs in the first two games of this series, winning both first-five moneylines/run lines by scores of 4-3 and 5-0. Atlanta has been a below-average first-five team with a 16-20-5 record.
The best price on the Marlins is coming from FanDuel, where OddsShopper shows us +124 on the full-game moneyline. Obviously, you’ll need to shop around for the best first-five line, but with other books at +115, it’s a pretty good margin here.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Chicago First Five -0.5 (+105)
We recently saw this matchup between Yu Darvish and Trevor Bauer, and it went the Cubs’ way pretty convincingly. Darvish shut out the Reds in a seven-inning 3-0 victory, leading 2-0 through five innings. Darvish has been on fire over his last seven starts, allowing 1 run or fewer in each start and just 5 total earned runs in 46 innings. The Cubs are 6-1 to the first-five run line in these games, with the narrow loss trailing the White Sox 1-0 before striking for two runs in the sixth.
Bauer had a Darvish-like stretch to begin the season, but has regressed over his last three outings. He’s given up 11 total runs (8 earned) in 17.2 innings, going 0-3 on the first-five line. Outside of the loss to the Cubs, this stretch includes awful losses to Milwaukee and Pittsburgh (which rank 30th and 27th, respectively, in first-five runs per game). The Cubs rank just 21st in first-five runs per game but still have the slight edge over Cincinnati, which ranks 25th. Let’s be generous and call these offenses even. I’m still betting on the starting pitching discrepancy.
OddsShopper shows PointsBet offering the best moneyline price on the Cubs at -159, so that’s a place to start when looking for the best first-five price.
NBA Picks & Predictions | Top NBA Bets
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics: Boston-3.5 (-110)
This reminds me a little bit of Miami closing out Milwaukee last night. Boston is clearly the better team, and with the Heat sitting in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics should be motivated to close this thing out and not let it get to a Game 7. The Serge Ibaka injury could prove very costly, as he’s been a great bench spark for them in this series. If ruled out, it’ll mean playing more of Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol, both of whom have played well below average in the series.
The Raptors really had to claw out their two wins, with a miracle shot for one and just a 7-point victory when the Celtics were ice-cold in Game 4, shooting just 7-of-35 (20%) from downtown. The rest of the series has been two Boston blowouts (by 18 and 22), and a 3-point victory in which they came back from down double digits late in the third quarter to win by three. The Celtics defense has been the key, holding Toronto to an average of 97.2 points per game with a high of 104. The Celtics have broken 100 points in every game but Game 4, which happened to be one of their worst shooting nights of the season. It just feels like the Celtics have too many advantages in this series, and while the Raptors likely won’t go easy, I trust Boston not to let this go to a do-or-die Game 7.
It’s also worth pointing out that Tony Brothers will be one of the officials in this game, which should work against the Celtics. Maybe this is finally the game the refs catch up to the Celtics, but the last two times the numbers have pointed to the refs making an impact, Boston has won and covered — Game 3 against Philadelphia and Game 2 versus Toronto. It did take a late run in the Philadelphia game and five Marcus Smart 3-pointers in the fourth quarter of Game 2 of this series to get out of those games, but they’ve proven capable.
This one is 3.5 across the board without much of a difference in the juice. But right now OddsShopper has the best price at FanDuel at -3.5 (-106), saving you 4 cents. It’s not much but might as well play the best price. If this moves back to -3 anywhere, that’s obviously where you’ll want to go.
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