This has been a back-and-forth week, going all or nothing on our plays each day. Let’s hope Thursday is one of the good days, especially with NFL returning. Here are my two strongest plays, along with analysis on the plays and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some MLB and NBA picks from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Los Angeles Over 5.5 (-125) AND First Five -0.5 (-140)
I’m completely torn on how exactly I want to back the Dodgers and fade Madison Bumgarner in this game, so I’m doing it in two different ways.
The Dodgers rank second in MLB runs per game on the road at 5.82 and have scored 10 and six runs so far in the first two games of this series. But this offense brings a particularly high ceiling into a matchup against Bumgarner. His opponents scored at least seven runs in each of his first four starts of the season and have averaged exactly seven runs per game over his five total starts. Opponents have scored 21 runs during Bumgarner’s 21.1 IP this season, and the bullpen hasn’t helped keep the bats in check after he departs games. Arizona’s bullpen has been the sixth-worst in MLB this season, with a 5.09 ERA and a 5.09 FIP. There is no reason the Dodgers bats shouldn’t have some early success and be able to carry it out throughout the game.
Because of the likelihood of the Dodgers getting to Bumgarner early, I love to back them on the first-five run line as well. Dustin May has been spectacular so far this season, with a 2.88 ERA and allowing fewer than two earned runs in all eight of his starts. This will be the worst offenses he’s faced yet, particularly early in games. The Diamondbacks are the worst first-five offense in baseball, averaging fewer than two runs per game.
FanDuel is offering the cheapest price on the Dodgers, with OddsShark showing -235 on the moneyline. Start there for a potential first-five play. As for the total, all of the books are about the same, with 9.5 runs for -115 to -120. So you’ll have to shop the books for the best team total price.
NFL Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: David Johnson Receiving Yards Over 23.5 (-124)
Johnson is coming off an injury, and we aren’t completely sure of his role with a new team, but I think that has the number set extremely conservative here. Johnson has been an elite pass catcher both out of the backfield and the slot over his career. In his three healthy seasons with the Cardinals, Johnson averaged 37.1 receiving yards per game. In six games prior to getting injured in 2019, Johnson hit the over on this number five times and averaged 52.5 receiving yards per game. He caught 30 of 41 targets in those games, which breaks down to an average of five receptions on 6.8 targets.
I can’t find any reason to believe the Texans won’t incorporate Johnson’s pass-catching strengths into their offense, especially when you consider that they thought highly enough of him to bring him back in return in the DeAndre Hopkins trade. Even with lesser pass-catching backs in 2019, the running back position averaged over 28 receiving yards per game, and that was with Hopkins on the roster.
In theory, getting rid of Deshaun Watson’s go-to-guy should lead to some extra checkdowns. The Chiefs defense allowed some cushy numbers to the running back position last season, giving up 6.4 receptions for 57.7 yards per game. And the game script as 9.5-point underdogs could help give Johnson some extra checkdown opportunities. I would think this number should be something closer to 28.5.
OddsShopper has a tool that incorporates player props. Right now you have to lay the -124 juice at any book you play it at unless you’re OK taking on an extra yard. BetMGM has the play at over 24.5 yards for -110.
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