MLB playoffs continues to be where my strongest plays are, so I’ll continue to focus there. Thursday Night Football hinges on some game-time decisions, so there may be an NFL play on Twitter later. But for now, here’s where I’m looking in MLB. Let’s break down a couple MLB picks that jump out to me, using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool to help us find the best current odds.
Ben Rasa's Bet of the Day Awesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: Miami First Five (+100)
We’ve been going back and forth each game on the first-five side of things in this series, and the pitching matchup strongly pushes us towards swaying back to the Marlins today. Sixto Sanchez gets the start for Miami, throwing five shutout innings, allowing four hits to the Cubs in his playoff debut. He had mixed results in two starts against the Braves in September, giving up three hits and shutting them out for six innings the first time around, then allowing four runs in three innings in his last regular season start. Both those outings were in Atlanta, though, where the Braves offense has been elite. Away from home, the Braves average just 2.44 runs per game in the first five, more than a 1.3-run drop-off.
The big edge here is fading Kyle Wright, who finished the regular season with a 5.21 ERA and allowed at least three runs in more than half his starts. In two of those outings against Miami, he gave up three runs in three innings in August, and then five runs in four innings in September. If there’s a matchup that sparks the Marlins’ bats, this is it. While we didn’t see it on Wednesday, Miami is a top-five first-five offense on the road, averaging 3.09 runs.
This one is on the move fast, as the starting pitching mismatch is a big one. You’ll want to use OddsShopper up to the minute when you lock this one in to find the best price. Books should vary.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: Over 8.5 (-120)
OddsShopper can legitimately help us out on this one with a lot of 9’s showing on the board. While some books could move down to 8.5, only one is showing it as of this morning: BetMGM. Getting the win instead of a push on 9 is a huge edge.
As to why we’re playing the over, we’ve seen runs all series and now get by far the worst pitching matchup. The totals so far have been 12, 15 and 12, so getting 8.5 here for Jordan Montgomery versus Ryan Thompson is a head scratcher.
Thompson threw two scoreless innings in Game 1 and likely just serves as an opener here, but Tampa’s bullpen has been hard at work in this series and has to come undone at some point, especially with New York’s bats fighting for their playoff lives. In the regular season, Thompson gave up four runs in six innings against the Yanks.
Montgomery was pretty awful this season, finishing with a 5.11 ERA. The only time he faced the Rays, he couldn’t even get out of the first inning, departing the game down 4-0. I’m not overthinking this one. Overs have been smashing, and the pitching is getting worse.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Need more NFL picks, NBA picks and MLB picks? Check out the Awesemo betting home page.
