We split MLB on Monday, but the board expands on Tuesday, with all four series in action. I have some MLB picks I’m on, along with an NBA pick we’ve gone to in the past.
Let’s break down a few spots that jump out to me, using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool to help us find the best current odds.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
MLB Pick: Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics: Houston Over 4.5 (-115)
Much like the Yankees, who we’ll get to next, the Astros are finally healthy, and we’re seeing their bats get back to what they used to be. The public perception is to fade Houston because they don’t have any trash cans to bang on this year, but the offense has been fine when healthy, including 10 runs in Game 1 of this series at Dodger Stadium.
Sean Manaea gets the start for Oakland after finishing the season with a 5.02 ERA in six starts away from home. Manea hasn’t seen a healthy Houston lineup since back in 2018 when he got four starts against them, allowing 14 runs in 20.2 innings. It’s worth nothing that he faced them this season and allowed just one run in seven innings, but the game was in Oakland, and Houston was missing pieces. This current Astros’ lineup is locked in, and can mash lefties.
OddsShopper doesn’t show us team totals yet, but you can likely find an edge by targeting the book with the best price on the game total. This team total opened 4.5 and remains the same despite the game total quickly getting bet up from 8.5 to 9.
MLB Picks: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Over 8 (+100)
AND New York Over 3.5 (-115)
My first play this morning was over on the game total at 8, but then it moved to 8.5 in most locations, and I thought the best edge was a very good price on the Yankees team total. I’m a fan of backing overs in almost any which way in this game, so use OddsShopper to decide the best way for you to back it at the time you’re betting.
Tyler Glasnow gets the start for the Rays, which gets us a team total that’s way too low for New York. This offense is at full strength and is mashing in the postseason — 31 runs in three playoff games and nine runs in Game 1 of the series. The reality is that Glasnow still finished the season with a 4.08 ERA and allowed at least two earned runs in nine of his 12 starts. But the cap here is pretty simple: the Yankees are raking, and 3.5 is just too low.
The game total also looks like a solid play as the Yankees send Deivi Garcia to the mound. In five starts in September, Garcia allowed 19 earned runs in 28.1 innings. All five of those games finished with at least nine runs scored with an insane average of 14.2. New York’s bullpen has also shown flaws this season, even in the postseason. The offense just masks any late collapses.
NBA Picks & Predictions | Top NBA Bets
NBA Pick: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat: LAL 1H -4.5 (-110)
This is a spot we keep going back to, but with good reason. The Lakers are 2-1 against the first-half spread in this series and a perfect 3-0 against the first-half spread coming off a loss this postseason. Los Angeles has now lost one game in each series, and here are the results the following game: Game 2 vs. Portland led by 17, Game 2 vs. Houston led by 16 and Game 4 vs. Denver led by five. As incredible as Jimmy Butler was in Game 3, one has to think the Lakers are going to make some adjustments to limit him in Game 4. Outside of the bounce-back spot, the biggest factor here should just be having Anthony Davis on the court. Davis was in foul trouble last game, and the Lakers looked completely out of sorts. Cut down on careless turnovers and lock back in with Davis getting his usually minutes in the rotation, and the Lakers should be off to a strong start.
This number is moving to -5 at some shops and should be there at the majority of books if you wait until tip-off. OddsShopper shows BetMGM offering the best price by 12 cents, so look there for your standard -110.
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