Sports are back in full swing, with an almost overwhelming amount of options to bet on. Here are a few of my strongest spots on the board for Tuesday’s betting card, along with analysis on the play and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some NBA Picks and MLB picks from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: First Five Under (4.5 )
My first read on this game was to back the Reds, but once I started looking at the numbers, this should be a low-scoring game early. Sonny Gray has a 1.94 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through seven starts and is yet to give up much production to any lineup. The second-most earned runs he’s given up was against this Cardinals lineup, and he allowed just two runs on four hits in six innings, which shows us how good he’s been.
Kwang Hyun Kim was a bullpen arm for the Cardinals to start the year but became a starter a few weeks ago, and things seem to be going pretty well. In those three starts, he’s allowed just one earned run in 15.2 innings (0.57 ERA) with nine total hits. In a matchup against the Reds, Kim allowed three hits in six shutout innings. St. Louis ranks 24th and Cincinnati 27th when it comes to runs per game in 2020, so offensive firepower hasn’t prevailed for either of these teams.
Sugar House and Bet Rivers both show plus money on the full game under of 8.5. I think anything better than -110 on the first-five under 4.5 is a good price. OddsShopper can help show you the best books to check first if you want a first-five play.
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox: Atlanta -1.5 (-112)
We were on the Braves run line in the last Edlow’s Edge and it paid off, and while it can be dangerous to trust the same spot too much, the matchup once again is too good to let it pass us by. Ian Anderson saw the Yankees in his MLB debut, throwing a one-hitter in six innings, although the hit was a solo shot. Anderson was dominant during his minor-league career overall, posting a 2.91 ERA in 80 starts.
Ryan Weber has a 6.00 ERA through 24.0 innings this season and is a below-average bullpen arm being asked to do too much. With Atlanta covering the run line in the first game of the series, 19 of Boston’s 23 losses have now come by multiple runs. The rest of the cap is literally the same as yesterday, trusting the Braves to be the team that thrives late in the game — Atlanta ranks seventh in runs per game, and Boston ranks 17th. Atlanta also has a top-five bullpen in baseball, and Boston has a bottom-five pen. There is too much working in favor of the Braves.
As I write this, every book on OddsShopper has this run line priced at -115 or better, so there’s no major value anywhere. But FanDuel’s -112 price tag is the best bet by a small margin. Perhaps a -110 finds the board by the time you’re placing your bet.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins: Chicago First Five Moneyline (Even)
Dallas Keuchel has been extremely consistent this season, giving up no more than three runs in an outing and putting up a 2.70 ERA. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offense has really fallen off recently, and has been completely shutdown by lefties. The Twins scored twice on Keuchel when they met in July, but CWS won the F5 5-0, and Minnesota’s production came late. The Twins rank just 19th in runs per game, and average four runs per game at home.
The White Sox offense has been on fire recently, averaging seven runs over the last five games, in each of which Chicago has scored at east five runs. The White Sox will face Michael Pineda, who pitched well against them in 2019, but he’ll be making his first start of 2020 against a completely revamped lineup. Pineda had an ERA above 4.00 each of the last four seasons, giving Chicago the pitching edge even if he were to return in full form. Offensive nod also goes to the White Sox.
Three books on OddsShopper actually favor Minnesota for the game here, with DraftKings, Sugar House and Bet Rivers all offering even odds. Start there when looking for your first-five moneyline play, but be sure to scan all the books.
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NBA Picks & Predictions | Top NBA Bets
Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors: Toronto Moneyline (-120)
The Celtics were in control of a wire-to-wire Game 1 victory and looked fantastic against the Raptors. Boston has been the better team in this matchup most of the season, but this is more than just a bounce-back spot for the Raptors. We’re expecting a drawn-out series here, which means Toronto might get a little help from the zebras in Game 2. Tony Brothers gets the call on this game, and the Celtics are 2-10 in their last 12 playoff games with him officiating, including 3-9 against the spread, failing to cover by 7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Raptors are 4-1 in playoff gamed reffed by Brothers since Nick Nurse became the coach, all fantastic info from John Ewing on Twitter. While none of this guarantees Toronto wins, it certainly should give it a push towards the finish line.
The Celtics had calls go against them in Game 3 against the 76ers, and while it kept the game tight for 46 minutes, the Celtoics pulled away in the final two minutes to cover. But the 76ers tend to crumble, while the Raptors should have some fight in them if this one’s close. This is kind of a dirty play, but I’ve seen these spots come up too much, and there’s something to them.
Make sure you use OddsShopper to find the best place to lock in this play if you’re on it, as you should be able to save a few cents somewhere. Right now about half the books offer -120 moneyline, while the rest sit as high as -125.
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