Edlow’s Edge: OddsShopper MLB Picks | Thursday, 9/17

NBA is back on the board, but it’s looking like a tight series to call between Miami and Boston. I lean Celtics to bounce back, but I think we have stronger spots on the MLB board, starting in the afternoon. Let’s dive into some of my MLB picks, along with analysis and the best place to take the bets, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool.


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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox: Minnesota First Five -0.5 (-120)

*2:10 p.m. EST first pitch so get on this one early

We’ve continued to back Kenta Maeda on the first-five line this season, going 6-3 to the run line in his nine starts. The White Sox are a hot lineup, but Maeda and the Twins bats still have a pretty sizable edge in this matchup.

We know the deal with Maeda by now. He’s been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, with a 2.43 ERA and no more than three earned runs allowed in any start. He did face the White Sox on the road back in his first start of the season, surrendering two runs in five innings on just four hits.

Reynaldo Lopez also got the start in that matchup and couldn’t even make it out of the first inning, giving up four runs and recording two outs. Lopez struggled again with the Twins in Minnesota earlier this month, pitching just 1.2 innings and allowing three runs (good for a total of seven runs in 2.1 innings this season). Lopez had these same struggles last season with the Twins, getting rocked for 20 runs in 15 innings over three starts. The offensive numbers with these teams are nearly identical, but I’ll back the huge pitching edge, especially when one of these lineups owns the opposing pitcher.

OddsShopper shows all the books between -109 and -116 on the full-game run line for the Twins. So you’ll need to shop the books for the best spot on the first-five run line.


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Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees: New York -1.5 (-110)

The Yankees have been getting bats like Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge back, and we’ve seen an immediate impact. New York has scored 33 total runs in the first two games of this series and has another terrific matchup in this one.

Chase Anderson will take the mound for the Blue Jays, giving up 10 earned runs in just 6.2 innings in two starts this month. The opposition has scored nine or more runs in three of his last four starts, including 18 runs from the Mets on Friday. That speaks not only to how bad Anderson has been but also Toronto’s bullpen. That pen has been downright awful over the last week, with a 12.93 ERA and a 9.10 FIP. Meanwhile, they’ll be tasked to slow down a Yankees’ offense that’s scoring 6.26 runs per game at home and has burned through arms in allowing 33 runs to start the series.

Masahiro Tanaka will get the start for New York, allowing just five earned runs in 21.1 innings over his last four starts. Toronto’s offense has been far worse on the road, averaging nearly a run and a half less than in Buffalo — 4.21 runs per game away from home. After a rough patch, the Yanks’ bullpen has bounced back strong, ranking sixth in baseball with a 2.51 ERA over the last week. New York is set up well for another dominant victory to conclude the series.

I snagged this one early at a pretty good price, but there’s still competitive value on the board. Some books show -125, and I expect that to continue to rise. But OddsShopper shows us DraftKings still has a -117 on the board, among other books. Anything under -120 is a steal here.


Need more NBA picks and MLB picks? Check out the Awesemo betting home page.

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