Sports are back in full swing, with an almost overwhelming amount of options to bet on. Here are a few of my strongest spots on the board for Thursday’s betting card, along with analysis on the play and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some MLB picks from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Cincinnati Moneyline (-129)
Sonny Gray is off to a very strong start this season with a 4-1 record, 2.21 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through six starts. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of those starts, but it was this Brewers lineup that got four runs off of him earlier this month. However, Milwaukee has the fifth-worst offense in MLB, and Gray has been extremely consistent in the rest of his starts. Adrian Houser was solid through his first two starts but has surrendered at least three runs in each of his last three starts — 11 total runs in 17 innings. While the offensive edge may be slim, the pitching edge is large enough for a play here. I had this as a first-five-inning play yesterday, and with the game postponed until today, I like the full-game play as the first-seven-inning game of the double-header.
DraftKings is currently offering the best moneyline price on this one at -129, but of course, you’ll want to check OddsShopper before you place your wager to pinpoint the best price at that moment.
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: Minnesota First Five -0.5 (Even)
Randy Dobnack has just a 1.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through six starts this season. While the Twins lost his first outing, he allowed just one run to the White Sox. Minnesota is 5-0 in Dobnak’s last five starts, including a perfect 5-0 on the first-five run line, winning those 25 total innings by a combined score of 16-5 (covering the first-five line by 2.1 runs per game).
Matthew Boyd is off to a terrible start this season with an 8.48 ERA. He’s extremely fortunate to have a 1-3-2 first-five moneyline record through six starts, and I expect that luck to change against the Twins. Boyd allowed 15 runs in 19 innings against the Twins last season, including eight homers. Minnesota also has a much better offense on the road, averaging 5.24 runs per game, compared to less than four at home. Detroit is actually a lesser offensive team at home, where it averages 4.38 runs. The Twins are 21-9-2 on the first five moneyline, while the Tigers are 8-15-6.
OddsShopper shows us all the books are very competitive on the full game run line price here, with four of the books offering -1.5 at even odds. This will require some digging to find the best price.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks: First Five Under 4.5 (-127)
Kyle Freeland and Zac Gallen have gotten off to tremendous starts this season, with Freeland posting a 2.87 ERA and Gallen a 2.25 ERA. Bullpens have messed around with their records, as somehow Gallen doesn’t even have a decision through six starts. The Rockies average just 3.88 runs per game on the road this season, and the Diamondbacks are the second-worst first-five-inning offense in baseball, averaging fewer than two runs. These teams are a combined 43-19-1 to the under in the first five innings, and taking it a step further, these two pitchers are a combined 11-1.
I found this number at DraftKings Sportsbook, with many others showing a 4 for the first five innings. Every book on OddsShopper is showing 8 for the game total right now, so do some scanning around before you lock this one in.
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