Yesterday was a tough day in the NBA and also dished out probably the worst college football bet I’ve ever made. The baseball card jumped out to me today, so I’ll be sticking to a couple of spots there along with analysis on the plays and the best place to take the bet courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some MLB picks from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto Moneyline (-112)
I thought the Yankees had the potential to be an absolute powerhouse this season, but they’ve now lost 7-of-9 and are falling apart. Yes, there are key injuries on offense to blame, but there’s no excuse for the pitching — it’s been garbage.
J.A. Happ has allowed four earned runs in three of his five starts and has an 8.00 ERA in two road starts. The Blue Jays have the righties to crush lefties and have been raking in Buffalo, averaging an MLB-high 6.71 runs per game at home. The bullpen was supposed to be a strength for the Yankees, but it has been the complete opposite. It ranks just below average on the season but has been the fifth-worst in baseball the past two weeks, with a 6.12 ERA and a 6.75 FIP.
Bullpens are a big reason why I’m going full game here. Toronto has gotten consistent production here and ranks fourth on the season with a 3.25 ERA. Taijuan Walker gets the start for the Jays, having a strong year with a 3.26 ERA, and allowing just two earned runs in 11.2 IP since being traded (Toronto won both games). Since all the injuries, the Yankees have been awful hitting righties. While the Yankees did score seven runs in the first game of the series in Buffalo, its road offense has struggled overall this season, averaging 3.95 runs per game. Walker’s better start of his two with Toronto actually came at home where he blanked the Orioles, giving up four hits in six innings.
This one’s priced between -115 and -120 at most books, but OddsShopper shows us FanDuel is offering the best odds at -112. This could move a little bit, so make sure you’re using OddsShopper find the best price.
Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates: Chicago First Five Moneyline (-139)
I was initially looking at this one as a full-game play, but the White Sox bullpen has been a bit shaky lately, and the Pirates pen has actually been spectacular, ranking second in MLB over the last two weeks.
I confined this one to a first-five play, highlighting the matchup between Dylan Cease and Joe Musgrove. Cease posted a 2.14 ERA in six starts in August, allowing no more than two earned runs in any outing. He allowed three runs his last time out against the Royals, which was his worst outing since July. The White Sox are 6-0 to the first-five run line in Cease’s last six starts and are on an 11-2 run on the first-five line overall.
Musgrove is 0-4 on the season with a 6.62 ERA. The Pirates are 0-4 on the first-five line in his starts, trailing each time by multiple runs. The White Sox rank seventh in first-five runs per game at 3.05, while the Pirates rank just 27th at 2.13. Pittsburgh is averaging 0.5 first-five runs in Musgrove’s starts.
FanDuel is also offering the best moneyline price here at -132, but you’ll need to look around the books for the best first-five number. It’ll be a slightly worse price than the moneyline, but I think it’s worth it given what we’ve seen from the bullpens.
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