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Edlow’s Edge: OddsShopper MLB Picks | Wednesday, 9/16

Julian Edlow



Edlow's Edge: Awesemo betting expert Julian Edlow analyzes the MLB odds and gives his favorite MLB Picks + MLB Predictions | Astros | 9/16

MLB is the only sport on the board for Wednesday. Let’s dive into some of my top MLB picks and MLB predictions, along with analysis on the play and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool.

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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets

Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore Over 3.5 (-130)

I don’t love laying as much juice as we’re going to on both spots today, but the numbers say we’ve got some really strong spots that should be priced higher. Right off the bat for this one, just look at the full-game total for this one — over/under 10, and we’re getting a 3.5 team total on the Orioles.

Baltimore is averaging 4.73 runs per game and gets to face a complete unknown in Cole Hamels, who’s making his season debut. He should only go a few innings, but it gives the Orioles a chance to tee off on a lefty at home, which they’ve done well this season. Atlanta’s bullpen ranks highly on the season but has regressed over the last couple of weeks and has been about average.

OddsShopper shows 10s across the board at all the books, so the challenge here will be hunting down the books offering 3.5 rather than 4.5.

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Texas Rangers at Houston Astros: Houston First Five -0.5 (-140)

This is the strongest spot I’ve come across this week in MLB, so if you follow along on Twitter, I may up this one to a two-unit play.

Lance McCullers has had an up-and-down season for the Astros, but he’s been extremely consistent at home — a 1.82 ERA through four starts. He’s allowed five earned runs in 24.2 innings, with opponents hitting just .179 in this matchups. The Astros have been a dominant first-five team at home, going 16-3-6 to the first-five moneyline. Houston’s bats have also been much better at home, ranking third in baseball with 3.78 first-five runs per game.

Kyle Gibson will get the start for the Rangers, who’s been one of the worst first-five pitchers in MLB. Gibson has a 6.14 ERA and a 2-7 first-five record overall. The Rangers have the second-worst first-five offense overall and second worst on the road — 1.82 first-five runs per game away. Texas also has the third-worst first-five record in baseball, stemming from how awful its been on the road — 4-15-3. Every number here points to Houston. Let’s hope for the best.

OddShopper shows BetMGM with the best full game run line price, so start there on your first-five bets. Let’s get this one in before it moves to -150.

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