MLB Picks: Edlow’s Edge Tuesday MLB Wild Card Best Bets Using OddShopper | 9/29

I pretty much took Monday off, but presented some different trends that worked in favor of the Ravens to consider. While the numbers were there, I just wasn’t confident enough to really make any normal-sized bets on the game, and I’m glad I passed. Throw the numbers out the window when you’re playing the Chiefs. Tuesday brings us back to MLB with the postseason getting underway. All four series on the American League side of the bracket will take place, with the series’ set up in a best-of-three format, with all the games at the higher seed’s ballpark. A couple of spots jump out to me in the early games. Here’s a breakdown of the MLB picks using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool to help us find the best current odds.


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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Wild Card Bets

MLB Pick: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins: Minnesota First Five -0.5 (-110) — 2 p.m. EST

We’ve been on Kenta Maeda in the first five innings all season in this article, and we’re not stopping now. The Twins are 7-0-4 on the first-five moneyline when he’s on the mound, including 4-1 to the first-five run line in five home starts, where he has a 1.91 ERA.

The Twins were a MLB-best 36-17-7 on the first-five moneyline, highlighted by their 23-6-1 record at home. The Astros went just 8-14-8 on the first-five moneyline on the road and ended the season leading after five innings in just one of 10 games. Zack Greinke enters the postseason with the Astros losing his last four starts, trailing after five innings in each of those games. He had just a 6.08 ERA in the month of September. In general, Houston did not have success against top competition, going 4-8 in Greinke’s 12 starts and beating just one playoff team. The Astros went 4-13 against teams that made the postseason.

The Twins rank sixth in MLB first-five runs per game at 3.03. Unlike last season, that number was exactly the same at home versus on the road. Houston finished the season ranked 10th in first-five runs per game, but this offense was tops in baseball around the midway point of the season, speaking to how hard it fell off in the second half. The Astros also averaged almost a full run less during the first five on the road at just 2.56.

For the full game run line, OddsShopper has both BetMGM and DraftKings offering the best price at -1.5 (+125). Those books should offer the most competitive first-five lines, but it’ll be close with the other books. Do your own line shopping here before placing.


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MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics: Chicago Moneyline (-121) — 3 p.m. EST

The White Sox are under fire for limping into the playoffs after a 2-8 finish to the regular season, but I’m not quite as concerned about them in this matchup. The bats got hot again in the final two games of the season, scoring 17 total runs against the Cubs. Lucas Giolito is of more concern to me than the offense, finishing September with a 4.18 ERA in four starts, but I think this sets up as a decent spot for a bounce back. Giolito was notably better on the road this season, posting a 2.79 ERA in five starts. Oakland was a slightly below average offense and scored over a full run per game less at home this season (4.09).

Jesus Luzardo is somewhat of a surprise Game 1 starter. His numbers are decent with a 4.12 ERA, but the schedule just didn’t require him to make many difficult starts. Against playoff teams, Luzardo gave up 11 runs in 20.1 innings pitched. The White Sox offense finished top five in runs per game at 5.1 and was consistent at home versus on the road. Chicago’s lineup is also built to smash left-handed pitching.

The full-season bullpen numbers have this game priced closer to a pick-’em than the game should be. Oakland finished the year with the best bullpen ERA in baseball but came undone a bit over the last couple weeks. In the last week of the season, both pens were slightly below average, but Chicago’s was slightly better.

OddsShopper shows the White Sox priced at -127 or better on every book, but BetMGM is the lone book offering the best price at -121. This one should move around a little all the way until first pitch, so OddsShopper should be very useful in finding you the best price.


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