After an off day, the NBA returns on Tuesday with Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. I have a spot that I’m targeting on the hardwood as well as an MLB play that stands out. Let’s dive into some of my top MLB picks and NBA picks, along with analysis on the play and the best place to take the bet courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets: Tampa Bay Moneyline (-128)
Seth Lugo was off to a tremendous start out of the bullpen this season for the Mets, but the starting role has been grinding him down. Lugo has given up nine runs in his last two starts, unable to get out of the second inning in his last outing in Philadelphia. The Rays have been a good road offense, averaging five runs per game away from home. I’m making this a rare full game play because I want to highlight the Mets’ weakness in the bullpen. New York ranks as the eighth-worst bullpen over the last week .
Blake Snell gets the start for the Rays, having allowed more than three runs in a start just once this season. Snell’s coming off two of his best starts of the year, shutting out the Red Sox over 5.1 innings and holding the Orioles to one run on two hits in 5.1 innings — both wins. Snell is 4-1 on the season with a 3.05 ERA, and most importantly, Tampa is 7-3 overall in his 10 starts. The Rays have a massive bullpen advantage here, ranking top three over the last month and the best in baseball over the last week. The Mets have been worse at home offensively this season, scoring two or fewer runs in three of their last four, including one total run in the last two home games combined.
OddsShopper has this game priced as high as -135 on some books, but FanDuel has the top price on the moneyline at -128.
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NBA Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets
NBA Pick: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets: Los Angeles First Half -3.5 (-110)
You can never say the Nuggets are out of a game at this point, but they certainly like to put themselves in some deep holes. The Lakers have led each of the first two games in their series by double digits, keeping their foot on the gas in Game 1 but needing an Anthony Davis buzzer beater to get Game 2. We should see some momentum carry over from the shot from Davis, along with some frustration from Denver. The Lakers have not only led by double digits at half in each game in this series, but they also had large leads at half in the final two games of the Houston series, going 5-1 against the spread in the first half since the Lakers’ Game 1 dud. The Nuggets are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum, going 1-5 against the spread in their last six playoff games — and just 9-12 against the first-half spread in the bubble. We know Denver responds well with its back against the wall, but it should be deflated after such a big loss, which I expect to turn into positive energy for the Lakers.
This one is moving to the -114 to -120 range at most books, according to OddsShopper. BetMGM is still offering the standard -110 on the first half for the best price.
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