Edlow’s Edge: OddsShopper NBA + NFL Picks | Thursday, 9/24

The slump continues. After a big NFL Sunday, I’ve been off this week, losing a rough combination of complete whiffs and some tough luck in other spots. I think MLB is borderline unbeatable for the final weekend of the season. I’ll most likely just wait for the playoffs at this point, unless a spot really jumps out to me with a massive edge. Full disclosure, I’ll personally be taking Thursday off from betting to just kind of clear the mind and prepare for the weekend. Still plenty of time to turn this week around. But there are three bets I placed on Wednesday for tonight’s games, so I’ll write up those three plays that I’m on, using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool to help us find the best current odds.


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NFL Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets

Keelan Cole Receptions: Over 4.5 (-104)

I wound up with really good value here, betting Cole at over 3.5 receptions for +107 on Wednesday. It was a soft price to begin with, but now that D.J. Chark has been ruled out, player props for the Jaguars are adjusting. Cole’s caught 11 of 12 targets this season, finishing with a 5-47-1 line in Week 1 and a 6-58-1 line in Week 2. Miami’s had poor secondary play thus far, and we can probably project two or three more targets for Cole now that Chark is out of the mix.

OddsShopper does still show a 3.5 on the board, but the over is priced at an unplayable -200. If you’re going to bet it at this point, you need to just take the over 4.5, which is priced at -104 across the books.

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards: Over 49.5 (-143)

Gesicki has been the go-to-guy for the Dolphins, leading the team with 16 targets. He had a monster game against the Bills in Week 2, finishing with eight grabs for 130 yards and a touchdown. Jacksonville ranks at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to defending tight end, giving up a 4-84-2 line to Jonnu Smith last week and 69 total yards to Indianapolis’ tight end combo in Week 1. With one of the worst pass rushes in the league, the Jaguars should leave Ryan Fitzpatrick plenty of time to find his favorite target.

OddsShopper shows this one priced the same across the books, although if the juice scares you, there’s an alternative option. PointsBet has this one at 50.5 yards, with the over priced at -115. So if you want to save almost 30 cents of juice and give up just one extra yard, that’s not a bad price.


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NBA Picks & Predictions | Top NBA Bets

Player Prop — More Points: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (-113) > Gary Harris

This is price close to a pick’-em, but Caldwell-Pope has clearly outplayed Harris in this series, and the Lakers count on their starting shooting guardmuch more than the Nuggets do theirs. Harris finished the last round against the Clippers strong, but he has shot just 5-of-18 in this series with 15 total points. He hasn’t scored more than seven in any game and is averaging just 5.0 points per game in the series. Caldwell-Pope has scored in double figures in each of the last five playoff games, including 13.7 points per game in the Western Conference Finals. In order, Caldwell-Pope has scored 18, 11 and 12 points this series, easily outscoring Harris. Pope has shot over 50% from the field in each game, knocking down eight total 3-pointers. There is just too much of a discrepancy in recent role and performance to pass on this number.


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