There are ugly games, then there’s what we’re about to get on Thursday Night Football. The Packers and 49ers are both dealing with COVID-19 issues, not to mention a ton of injuries, but we’re still going to get this game on a short week. The 49ers specifically are dealing with an insane amount of roster issues, essentially starting backups at every skill position. My eyes went straight to the prop market to see how if there are NFL betting picks we can take advantage of.
Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some NFL picks.
Ben Rasa's Bet of the DayAwesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
NFL Betting Picks & Predictions | Top Thursday Night Football NFL Bets
NFL Betting Pick: Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards: OVER 26.5 (-139)
Let’s list off the potential pass-catchers the 49ers will be without in this game: George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jeff Wilson and maybe Jordan Reed. And that’s with Nick Mullens now taking over at quarterback long-term. There are not a lot of options for targets here. The Packers have not done well defending the running back position this season. In fact, they allow an NFL-high 63.3 receiving yards per game to the position. Jerick McKinnon should be in there on the majority of passing downs, coming off catching all four of his targets for 40 yards against the Seahawks last week. Obviously, this is a situation where he could see some extra targets, and the game script also sets up for the 49ers to be checking down.
DraftKings had this one early at over 21.5 (-150) but has now corrected the number to 28.5 (-112). PointsBet has the best number on the board at 26.5 (-139), but you need to lay the juice. It is up to you if you’re willing to spend an extra 27 cents to buy two yards.
NFL Betting Pick: Kyle Juszczyk Receiving Yards: OVER 10.5 (-112)
McKinnon is my best bet, and likely my only bet for Thursday Night Football. But it’s tough to ignore Kyle Juszczyk, who’s a fullback but plays some running back and tight end. Given the 49ers injuries, he almost has to get involved in the passing game. Juszczyk had receptions of 41 yards in Week 1, 13 yards in Week 4, 18 yards in Week 7 21 yards last week. It could just take one completed target to hit this one against the Packers.
A few books show the 10.5 number on Juszczyk, and DraftKings offers a slight savings on the price at -112.
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