Finally, last week is over. It was my worst week in the sports gambling space since I started providing picks a couple of years ago. It happens. So let’s recoup some losses this week and get back with some wins. While I haven’t locked in a bet for the massive Monday Night Football showdown between the Chiefs and Ravens, I have a couple of spots circled that I’ll breakdown. I also have a Week 4 teaser where I expect the lines to move too much to lock later in the week, so I’ll share it now if you want to bet it. Here’s a breakdown of the NFL picks, using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool to help us find the best current odds.
Ben’s Bet of the Day
Awesemo’s sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day’s betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
NFL Picks & Predictions | Top Monday Night Football Bets
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore First Quarter-0.5 (+110)
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore First Half Over 3.5 (-140)
Like I said, I’m yet to lock in a play for Monday Night Football yet but will have updates when posting this article to Twitter. Despite Patrick Mahomes’ 5-0-1 record against the spread as an underdog, I lean to the Ravens in this one. However, I need to get it at -3 to play it, and at a better price than the -125 that OddsShopper is showing.
Two trends jump out to me for a potential play, though. The Ravens have gotten off to fantastic starts, dating back to last season, while the Chiefs can take some time to settle into a game. Baltimore has held leads of 3 and 4 points after the first quarter in two games this season, and Kansas City has trailed by a touchdown following the first frame in each of their games. You’ll recall this was an issue for the Chiefs in the playoffs last season, falling into huge holes early against Houston and Tennessee. Even when these two teams met in the 2019 regular season, Baltimore led by 6 after the first quarter, then the Chiefs came back and won the game. Getting plus-money on the first quarter is attractive here, but it’s tough to bet such a short period of game, especially if the Chiefs were to start the game with the ball. This one could be better to bet in-game.
When it comes to the first half team total for the Ravens, I love the play, hate the price. Baltimore has scored 24 and 20 points in the first halves of their two games, which was the most total first half points in the NFL entering Week 3. This trend dates back to last season, when the Ravens ranked third in the NFL at 17.1 first-half points per game. If you can find a price worth firing on, this is my favorite way to back the Ravens. I’m also seeing a lot of 28.5s on the board for full-game team totals. An over play on 27.5 that isn’t too juiced up is also a strong play.
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Week 4 6-Point Teaser: Seattle -0.5/Pittsburgh +7.5 (-110)
This is a Week 4 play that I don’t expect to be around for long and has moved at most shops. The Seahawks opened 6.5-point favorites against Miami, while the Steelers surprisingly opened as 1.5-point dogs to the Titans. The Steelers have moved to favorites at most books, and I could see them closing as -2.5 in this game. With how well the Seahawks are playing, I could also see them closing as favorites of a touchdown or larger.
I pieced those teams together in a teaser with Pittsburgh at +1.5, getting me key numbers in Seattle to win outright and Pittsburgh to lose by a touchdown and still cover. Steelers moneyline may be a play later in the week, but I had to fire on the value when I found it. But if you can find a book that has the Steelers still as a pick-’em, you would be able to get them +6 in a tease, which I still feel hold value as an NFL pick.
As for the matchups, the Seahawks are obviously nothing special on defense. This could be a game to look at the over, but it’s tough to imagine Seattle not winning that shootout. The Ryan Tannehill regression we’ve all been waiting for just doesn’t seen to be happening for Tennessee, but the Steelers will be by far the best defense he’s seen. The Titans have fought for some impressive late game wins, but are still 0-3 against the spread despite their undefeated record. Pittsburgh will be a real test and should have its way with Tennessee’s defense.
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