Edlow’s Edge: OddsShopper NFL Picks | Sunday, 9/20

We never want to overreact to Week 1 too much, but with one week in the books, it is helpful to feel like we know a little bit more about how teams will operate in Week 2. I really like a lot of favorites this week and honestly am still figuring out exactly how I’m going to bet them. I think it’s a very strong week for moneyline parlays and 6-point teasers, both of which I’ll outline below. Here are a few of my strongest spots, along with analysis on the plays and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some NFL picks from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.


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6-Point Teaser and Moneyline Parlay Pool

I spoke about it on Friday’s OddsShopper betting show on Awesemo, and I’ve been trying to figure out how to translate it to this article since. I’m not going to give an official play here, but rather just give you my pool of parlay/teaser teams and let you operate how you please. I think this is setting up as a pretty chalky week, and a lot of those teams in position to win are at key numbers for teasing.

This is NOT a five-team parlay I’m putting together. I like piecing these together as two-team parlays, or two-team 6-point teasers. If you want to bet them all together very small, go for it.

Pittsburgh -6.5 — teased to -0.5
Green Bay -6 — teased to pick ’em
San Francisco -7 — teased to -1
Baltimore -7 — teased to -1
Kansas City -8.5 — teased to -2.5

Basically, all of these teams can be teased to win the game on the moneyline. You can buy the extra half-point with the 49ers or Ravens to get it there. The Chiefs are the most interesting of the bunch because rather than pay for the steepest moneyline on the board, we can tease them through key numbers of 7 and 3. There’s a ton of value in getting them at -2.5 with another team to win outright, and getting just -110 odds. I essentially have all these teams teased together in separate two-team teasers.

Once you’ve established your targets here, use OddsShopper to see if a moneyline parlay or teaser is more profitable. It’ll most likely be the teaser.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: Los Angeles Moneyline (+110)

I’m going to continue being a square this week and bet the Rams. They looked pretty good in a Week 1 victory over the Cowboys and were great on the road last season — 6-2 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Eagles were just 3-6 against the spread at home last season and are coming off an awful showing against Washington. Carson Wentz was sacked eight times, throwing two interceptions and fumbling once. Even with Lane Johnson back, I expect Aaron Donald and crew to put a ton of pressure on Wentz.

OddsShopper is showing +110 across the board on Sunday morning.

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas -3.5 (-105)

I’m really hoping this one moves to -3, but either way, we’re getting great value. This one opened at around a touchdown, and Atlanta keeps taking money. The Falcons looked awful defensively in Week 1, giving up 38 points to the Seahawks. The Cowboys were a significantly better team at home last season and have a massive offensive ceiling in this game. It’s likely to be a shootout, but I expect Dallas to win right around where the line opened.

OddsShopper shows FanDuel with the best early Sunday morning price, with -105 on -3.5. If a book moved to -3, it seems like FanDuel would be first.


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