I had a couple of really strong props I was excited to go to on Sunday’s NFL card, but injury news is starting to work against me on them. I still think one is strong enough to lock in, along with taking a side on Sunday Night Football. Outside of two plays, we’ll see about acting on leans on a couple of other plays. Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some NFL betting picks.
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NFL Betting Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets
Damien Harris Rushing Yards: OVER 64.5 (-112, BetMGM)
After dazzling in camp, Harris was on IR the first three weeks of the regular season, but he has been one of the best running backs in the NFL since week 4. Harris has posted three 100-yard games and exceeded 64.5 yards in each of his last three, averaging 98 rushing yards in those contests.
The good news is that Harris is fresh off a season-high in carries (22) and yards (121) against Baltimore last week. The bad news is that Sony Michel is coming off IR and playing for the first time since Week 3 — meaning it’s the first time Michel and Harris are both active for a game. The way Harris is playing, it would seem silly to take too much of his workload away, but the Patriots do weird things.
In the end, I’m trusting the spot and playing the prop, mostly because Houston’s run defense is just that bad. The Texans rank bottom of the barrel in the NFL, allowing 167.4 rushing yards per game. They allowed over 200 yards to Derrick Henry earlier in the year, and last week they allowed 100 yards to both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, leaving hope for Harris to breakout, even if Michel mixes in.
You can find the prop at 63.5, but it’s juiced to -167 on DraftKings. I’ll get rid of the juice and lay an extra yard.
My other prop this week was going to be D’Andre Swift’s rushing prop — he saw a massive boost in usage after being named the starter and faces Carolina. If we get a very reasonable number on Adrian Peterson, I’d consider firing.
If not, while I don’t want to force bets, I may have some interest in the Patriots around -125 on the moneyline. I don’t want to overreact to the win over Baltimore. Playing an offense like Houston indoors could lead to the Patriots getting burned — it did last year when they were a much better team. However, Stephon Gilmore should be back to help limit the passing game, and the Patriots should stick to what they do best running the ball. I like the Patriots to win.
NFL Betting picks: Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (-110, William Hill/PointsBet)
I’m hoping with the Raiders getting so many players cleared from the COVID list, we can get this at a touchdown, but it might not happen. If not, I’d consider buying the half point, but I’m expecting the Chiefs to dominate this one. Yes, the Raiders are having a nice season, but don’t underestimate the Super Bowl champs coming out of the bye.
We now how good Andy Reid has been out of the bye in his career, and we also know the run the Chiefs are on when they go on the road in the division —14-3 against the spread in the last 17. The Chiefs went on a dominant run out of the bye last year, ripping off eight straight wins and covers, all the way through the Super Bowl. They won those games by over 16 points per game, and the first game out of the bye was a 31-point victory over the Raiders. Add in the revenge narrative for the Chiefs’ lone loss of the season coming to the Raiders, and I think we have a recipe for a blowout.
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