Week 2 was a huge teaser week for us, and those are few and far between. With fewer appealing matchups and key numbers this week, only a few spots really jump out to me. Here are a few of my strongest spots, along with analysis on the plays and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some NFL picks from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.
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NFL Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots: New England -6.5 (-107)
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots: Cam Newton to score a touchdown (-106)
I gave this play out on the OddsShopper show on Friday when we could get it at -5/-5.5, but the line is rightfully moving back to where it opened. This is both a classic letdown spot for the Raiders and bounce-back spot for the Patriots.
The Raiders are coming off a huge Monday Night Football win over the Saints, but I thought that game spoke more to how poorly New Orleans played. The Saints killed themselves with constant penalties on huge plays, which the Patriots just won’t do. New England had a chance to upset the Seahawks on the final play of the game, but even in defeat, the storyline was how good Newton and the offense looked. It should have no issues gashing the Raiders defense, even though Drew Brees struggling to do so. Darren Waller killed the Saints over and over again, which I expect the Patriots to pay special attention to. We may even see Stephon Gilmore shadow the tight end since the wide receiver play on Vegas is so poor.
As for Newton, he’s essentially been the Patriots goal line running back, so I’m playing him at an extremely fair price to find the end zone. Newton has four rushing touchdowns through two games, and while he won’t keep that pace, he’s going to have scoring chances nearly every week. Newton handled 55% of New England’s red zone carries in Week 1, and that number spiked against Seattle, up to 75% in Week 2.
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles: Drew Sample Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)
Joe Burrow has locked in on his tight ends in the early going. Prior to going on IR, C.J. Uzomah had eight receptions on 11 targets, and that was in about a game and a half. Sample stepped into the TE1 role after Uzomah went down and was surprisingly targeted nine times against the Browns, recording seven receptions. The Eagles have given up big games to both Logan Thomas and Tyler Higbee so far, so they’ve been struggling to defend this position.
This one’s juiced up at a lot of books, but OddsShopper shows us BetMGM still showing -115 on the board.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: Nick Mullens Passing Yards: Under 252.5 (-112)
Mullens came on in relief of Jimmy G last week, and while he completed eight of 11 passes in the second half against the Jets, they went for only 71 yards. Yes, San Francisco had a huge lead, but rundown at so many positions, the 49ers will probably run the ball and keep the gameplan simple here. The 49ers will be without their starting wide receivers, and George Kittle remains sidelined. The Giants actually haven’t given up any huge passing games yet, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing for 229 yards in Week 1, and Mitchell Trubisky going for 190 last week. It is tough to imagine Mullens having much of a game.
OddsShopper shows us DraftKings, BetRivers and Sugar House are the books offering the best numbers on Mullens unders.
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