The NFL continues to plow through COVID scares, giving us a decent Week 6 card. With another double-header on Monday, I’m just going to stick to some strong spots I like for Sunday’s card. Let’s go over a few of them, along with analysis on the plays and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. I haven’t bet all of these spots yet, but I will have my final card on Twitter. Let’s get into some NFL picks from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.
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NFL Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota -4 (-110)
I love the spot here for the Vikings, who rank as one of the best 1-4 teams we’ve seen, getting a home matchup against the lowly Falcons. Minnesota is 3-2 against the spread and easily could have three wins if they were able to close out Seattle and Tennessee. The Falcons are about as bad as it gets when it comes to closing out games, so advantage to Minnesota this time around.
Kirk Cousins should be able to shred Atlanta’s secondary, and Alexander Mattison getting carries in place of Dalvin Cook is a non-factor for me. While Minnesota got off to a poor start on defense, it’s been pretty average over the last few weeks, including a good showing against Russell Wilson. Aside from the matchup working in Minnesota’s favor, this has been a spot that the Vikings have dominated, going back to last season. The Vikings are 2-1 against the spread following a loss this season and were 6-0 against the spread off a loss last season.
OddsShopper shows this line moving to 4.5 at some books, so this is one you may want to lock in at -4 before we get to Sunday. Even if -4s are showing Sunday, they could be juiced up.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: Los Angeles -3 (-110)
This is a square play this week, but I’m convinced that the 49ers are not a good football team. Why is sharp money coming in on them? The lookahead line here was -3, so there’s some value on a 6-point swing. While San Francisco might be getting a bit healthier, its still missing crucial pieces and has no answer at quarterback right now. The 49ers continue to get too much respect without doing anything yet. Though five games, this team has beaten only the Jets and Giants. They are 0-3 straight up and against the spread at home, losing to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins.
This is mostly a 49ers fade, but it’s also difficult to poke any holes in what the Rams have done so far. They’ve beaten all four NFC East teams but were close to pick-’ems against the Cowboys and Eagles. They also arguably deserved to win in Buffalo but lost because of a questionable fourth-down penalty.
There probably isn’t a rush to get this one, as I expect it to close at -3. OddsShopper has this game juiced above -110 at every book but one though, with BetMGM the only one offering -110.
David Montgomery Rushing Yards: OVER 59.5 (-112)
Montgomery rushed for 64 yards on 13 carries against the Lions in Week 1, followed by 84 yards on 16 carries against the Giants. That seems to be a better baseline for what we can expect from the Bears’ running back in a positive game script like he should see Sunday. While Montgomery has failed to hit this yardage in the last three weeks, the Falcons matchup was really the only disappointing one, and the Bears were playing from behind almost all game. Since then, Indianapolis and Tampa are awful matchups for a running back, setting up a bounce-back spot. The Panthers rank 25th in rushing yards per game allowed at 133.4, and Chicago doesn’t have much competition in its backfield with Tarik Cohen done for the season. Montgomery should see 15 carries in this game, so finishing with fewer than 60 yards would be rather disappointing.
OddsShopper shows us 59.5 is the number across the industry, but you still might want to bet it before it moves or gets juiced up. Each book is still -112 to -115 as of Friday afternoon.
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