Edlow’s Edge: OddsShopper MLB World Series Game 2 Best Bets | Rays vs Dodgers | 10/21

We did pretty well with Game 1 of the Rays vs Dodgers World Series on Tuesday, with article plays going 3-1 and official plays posted to Twitter finishing 2-0. We’ll do the same thing today; I’m going to write up all my leans in this article and then post official plays on Twitter as I lock them. You can follow me on Twitter @julianedlow. Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some MLB picks.


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World Series Game 2 MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets

MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Los Angeles First Five (-129)

Tony Gonsolin finished the regular season with a 2.31 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts). His only real struggles this season came in the NLCS, but that was against an Atlanta offense that ranks second in MLB behind only the Dodgers. Gonsolin went at least five innings in each of his five starts in September, so he’s been stretched out as a starter and should be able to get us through the Rays order twice before going to the bullpen. Snell’s been consistent all season long, with his 3.24 regular season ERA translating to the playoffs to the tune of a 3.20 ERA. But this is more about how the Dodgers are smashing left-handed pitching — they are hitting .309 with 11 homers and 11 more extra-base hits in 162 postseason at-bats. I expect Mookie Betts to carry some momentum from his hot Game 1 into this one and help get some production off Snell. We saw how the Dodgers got to Tyler Glasnow in Game 1, and I expect similar results when Snell gets to his second time through the order.

OddsShopper shows the best moneyline price at BetMGM, and the first-five should come at a similar price. DraftKings is offering the -129 on the first five innings that I posted as the price.

MLB Pick: Run Scored in First Inning: No (-124)

Gonsolin started nine of his 11 outings this season, and in those nine starts, he didn’t allow a first-inning run. Snell was also terrific in the first inning of games, giving up runs in the first frame just twice in 15 starts. The bats on both sides haven’t seen much of the opposing starter, which I expect to give us a similar slow start like Game 1 before the Dodgers break through. My only concern is Betts in the leadoff spot, who hits Snell well from his time in Boston. I’ll have more on those numbers later.

MLB Pick: Blake Snell Strikeouts: Under 5.5 (-113)

The Rays uncharacteristically left Glasnow out there way too long in Game 1, and it cost them. Their strategy all season long has been pulling starters early and letting that elite bullpen finish the job. I think that mistake could lead to a quick hook for Snell if he gets in any early trouble. The Dodgers have been hitting lefties well and are striking out against them at a 22% rate in the postseason. Snell’s finished with five or fewer strikeouts in 10 of his 15 starts so far in 2020.

OddsShopper is showing this at -113 across the books, which has moved from even odds this morning.


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MLB Pick: Mookie Betts and Will Smith Props

OddsShopper only shows us the odds to record a hit, which is a little steep on both players. Betts is -225, while Will Smith is -159. If I’m just playing the hit props, I think Enrique Hernandez is the best value at -125. Obviously, we’re looking for right-handed bats here going up against Snell.

For Betts, I think targeting an over on 1.5 bases, or an over 2.5 on his three-way prop (hits, runs and RBIs combined) makes for the best value. Both should be around -125, you just need to scan the board. Same goes for Smith, who I’m looking at over 2.0 on the three-way prop for +105.

The upside in playing Betts is the familiarity I mentioned with Snell. Betts is 7-for-23 with a pair of doubles, a home run, six RBI and three walks with only two strikeouts against him.


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