Edlow’s Edge: Wednesday MLB Picks | Wild Card Playoff Best Bets Using OddsShopper | 9/30

We got off to a good start with MLB postseason plays yesterday, going 2-0 in the article and 3-1 if you tailed plays added throughout the day on Twitter. With an insane eight-game card in MLB on Wednesday, I have a few more MLB picks I’m going to. Even with the NBA Finals getting underway, I don’t have a strong take on Game 1. Numbers can talk you into either side, but if anything jumps out in my research throughout the day, I’ll be posting to Twitter.

Let’s break down a few spots that jump out to me in MLB, using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool to help us find the best current odds.


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Edlow’s Edge: MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets

MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays: Toronto First Five (+120)

Hyun-Jin Ryu ended the regular season on a tremendous stretch, giving up 12 earned runs in his final 10 starts (58 innings pitched). Toss out his only poor outing against the Yankees elite bats during that span, and Ryu surrendered just seven earned runs over a 53-inning span in the other nine starts. That stretch included five innings in Tampa in which he allowed one run on three hits.

Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow hasn’t been anything special this season. He somehow didn’t get to face Toronto despite facing off in 10 of their 60 total games, but Glasnow posted worse numbers against the same competition the Jays had. Glasnow allowed at least two runs in eight of his last 10 starts, including four starts allowing three-plus runs — which Ryu only did once since the start of August.

Tampa clearly has the bullpen advantage in this series, so we want to cut that out of the equation. Toronto made the decision to push its ace to Game 2 for strategic purposes. This is the spot they’ve been counting on to turn the series.

OddsShopper has pretty consistent prices across the board on this game. BetMGM shows the best moneyline by a hair at +125.


Ben Rasa’s Bet of the Day

Awesemo’s sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day’s betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.


MLB Pick: New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians: New York Moneyline (-120)

One of my late adds on Tuesday was the Yankees moneyline, which paid off. Leaving the numbers aside for a minute, New York is finally getting healthy, and Cleveland hasn’t pitched against an offense like this all season. For once we’re seeing the Yankees being undervalued.

Carlos Carrasco had a very solid season, posting a 2.91 ERA through 12 starts. But schedule matters in baseball this year. Here are the 12 opponents he faced, along with their offensive ranks in runs per game:

  • Kansas City (twice, 25th)
  • Minnesota (19th),
  • Cincinnati (28th),
  • Chicago Cubs (twice, 20th)
  • Pittsburgh (twice, 30th)
  • Detroit (twice, 22nd)
  • St. Louis (24th)
  • Milwaukee (26th)

That’s a cakewalk. Now try your luck with the fourthranked Yankees, who are probably under-ranked due to all their regular season injuries and put up 12 runs with likely Cy Young winner Shane Bieber on the mound in Game 1.

Cleveland’s 27th-ranked offense looked the part in Game 1. Masahiro Tanaka had a pretty average season, posting a 3.56 ERA, but he faced much more dangerous offenses consistently. He’s a great big-game pitcher, with a 1.76 ERA in the postseason. Normally this would be a first-five consideration, but the Yankees bullpen has the pieces to compete with any other in baseball. I want to give this massive offensive edge as many innings as possible to put up runs.

Once again, OddsShopper shows BetMGM offering the most favorable odds if you side with the Bombers.


Editors Note:

Julian Edlow is recommending the Lose Angeles Dodgers as one of his favorite MLB picks of the day in their MLB Wild Card Playoff matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. The new Awesemo OddsShopper tool searches all the big betting sites and finds the best price for your bet. Click here to start shopping!

Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Picks Wild Card Playoffs

MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers: Los Angeles -1.5 (+100)

This is the largest mismatch in the postseason, with the Brewers coming in as one of baseball’s worst offenses and the rotation in shambles. Milwaukee averages just 4.12 runs per game, which branks 26th. With how out of sorts the rotation is at the moment, this is essentially a bullpen game for the Brewers. Brent Suter started just four of his 16 appearances. His 3.13 ERA is nothing to scoff at, but he also only pitched more than three innings once this season. It’s tough to ask too much of him. That means relying on a bullpen that ranked just outside of the top 10 and will be asked to fill a lot of innings in Game 1. Good luck with the Dodgers top-ranked offense, averaging over 5.8 runs per game.

The Dodgers send Walker Buehler to the mound, who only pitched 36.2 innings this season because of a stint on the IL. But Buehler’s been a stud in his early playoff experience and found a little bit of a groove since coming off the IL the most recent time — four shutout innings against Oakland, allowing just one hit. The Dodgers have the best bullpen in baseball and should be able to limit Milwaukee. So, if you’re keeping track, that’s sizable advantages in starting pitching, bullpen and as wide a margin on offense as you could ask for.

It’s looking like a one-stop-shop day on BetMGM, unless anything has a major shift in odds. OddsShopper shows us BetMGM offering even odds on the run line, with as high as -112 juice at other books.


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