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NHL Betting Picks: Oilers vs. Flames | Feb. 19
The Oilers enter this game with an offense that looks near impossible to stop. They’re up to fourth in goals per game at 3.5 and have scored 40 over their last 10 games. The team’s added some offensive scoring depth with the addition of Jesse Puljujarvi to the first line. Offseason addition Tyson Barrie has also started to work, as he has 12 points in his last 10 games, and his open-ice play meshes well with the Oilers’ offensive skill players. Edmonton has definitely taken the “if we can’t stop you, we’ll outscore you” approach, but it does seem to be working. Goaltender Mike Smith has also been huge addition after returning from injury. He has gone 3-1 in four starts and carries a .938 save percentage into this game despite giving up 4 goals on 11 shots last week against Winnipeg.
Calgary enters off a series split with the Canucks. The Flames eked out an overtime win a few nights ago but then got waxed 5-1 in their last game against Vancouver. The outing was one of the worst of the year for starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom, who allowed 5 goals on 29 shots and was eventually pulled for backup David Rittich. Rittich could get the start here, which would be interesting given he and the Oilers have some history and he was trounced by Edmonton last year in an 8-3 loss. The Flames offense continues to sputter, ranking just 17th in goals per game, even though they are creating chances at a decent rate according to most advanced stats. Their offense has been good at getting up for the Oilers, as they’ve potted 4 or more goals in four of the last five meetings with Edmonton.
Best Bet: Oilers Moneyline (+108) at Flames (DraftKings; FanDuel)
The Flames have had Edmonton’s number over the past year or so, as they enter with a 4-1 record over the last five games between these two teams. It does feel like a bit of a shift in power has taken place over the last three weeks, though. The Flames have treaded water, relying mainly on good goaltending from Markstrom to prop them up, while the Oilers have seen additional support from a variety of sources like Evan Bouchard and Smith. Edmonton still gets involved in too many back-and-forth games, but they have become better at winning them and seem to be the team more comfortable in their own skin. From a bigger picture perspective, we are also getting an Oilers team at plus-money here that has averaged 4.0 goals over their last 10 games and have two of the premier players in the NHL in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Calgary is getting respect they may not deserve here as a home favorite, so taking the better odds on Edmonton feels like the right move.
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Connor McDavid to Score (+133) & Score First Goal (+1000, DraftKings)
Edmonton’s offense is really cooking, and with that in mind, I think it’s probably a fair night to take a shot that the best player in the league breaks a five-game scoreless streak. McDavid is shooting a little more this year, but his shooting percentage on the season has actually dipped under his 14.8% career shooting percentage. He has also owned the Flames, scoring 16 goals against them in 21 career games. It looks like a nice spot to take McDavid to score here on the plus money, and if you’re looking for some bigger odds, the first-goal option at +1000 looks like a decent NHL betting pick as well.
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