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NHL Betting Picks: Oilers at Maple Leafs | Jan. 22
The Oilers and Maple Leafs meet up here for the second game of a double-header in Toronto. The first game saw the Oilers eke out a 3-1 win that was punctuated by some solid goaltending from Mikko Koskinen. The Oilers needed it badly too, as they have started the season poorly from a defensive perspective, allowing the third-most scoring chances against. Koskinen has been all over the place for the Oilers and posted save percentages above .950 in the two games the Oilers have won, but he has looked poor in the losses. Edmonton hasn’t helped him out much either, as their power play is 22nd in conversion percentage. It’s only been 10 games, but that doesn’t bode well considering they led the league in this area last year. The Oilers did convert one power-play marker in the last game against the Leafs, scoring the go-ahead goal in the third with the man advantage and going 1-for-3 on the power-play overall.
This matchup will again be touted as a star-on-star battle as Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews again share the spotlight. McDavid has a solid record against the Maple Leafs, with 11 points against them in eight heads-up meetings with Matthews, while Matthews has just managed just six points against the Oilers in those same meetings. The Leafs have also endured a mediocre start and are just behind the Oilers in scoring chances allowed while dropping two of their last four games. A lack of scoring has surprisingly been an issue for Toronto. They were second as a team in goals scored last year but have averaged just 3.0 per game in 2021, well under their 3.4 average from 2019-20.
One final note on this game: Matthews missed practice Thursday with an “illness.” Obviously, any kind of illness related issue is going to bring extra scrutiny at this point in time, and for this game his status deserves watch.
Oilers vs. Leafs Over 6.5 goals | +100 (Pointsbet; William Hill)
As mentioned above, neither of these teams have been great defensively to start the year, and both sides have shaky goaltending. Dating back to the start of last season, the Leafs are 11th in scoring chances allowed, and the Oilers are fourth. Therefore, the first game between these two rivals should likely be taken as more of an anomaly rather than what we’re likely to see between these teams in a bigger sample size — aka more back-and-forth shootouts. While the lack of offense in Wednesday night’s game can likely be blamed on a bit of fatigue from a packed early-season schedule (both teams were playing their fifth-game in a week), the effort tonight should be better.
The Oilers power play isn’t going to stay dormant for long, and they’ll have a chance to really get going against a Leafs penalty kill that was 11th worst in the league last year. The confidence they built with a late power-play goal in the first meeting should carry over. It’s early, but this is a big game for both teams too. Edmonton can scratch back to .500, while Toronto desperately wants to avoid a prolonged slump and get back to .500. Expect more offensive effort, which will certainly lead to more goals given the defensive issues on both sides. The +100 at multiple sportsbooks for the over is worth risking for this NHL betting pick.
Bonus: Wild Puckline (-1.5) vs. Sharks | +184 (FanDuel)
The Wild are 3-1 on the season, but they’ve played three close games against inferior opponents, so their odds don’t really reflect their record here. At just +135 on the moneyline, the Sharks are coming off a close win against St. Louis and likely getting a little too much respect here. San Jose is eighth in scoring chances allowed, and the Wild have been winning without much (if any) production from their first line. Minnesota’s lack of power-play production also won’t be a big deal here against a team as bad at five-on-five as San Jose. By using Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool, we can see we’re getting just under +200 odds to take the Wild to cover the -1.5 line, which seems like a good target to me.
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