The Corner Kick: EPL Game Week 8 Picks 11/5 | No Anfield No Problem?

The following are EPL betting picks where I agree with the results driven by my betting model, and I feel comfortable placing at least a unit.

Favorite EPL Betting Picks

Manchester City vs. Liverpool: Liverpool Win or Draw double (-120)

This match is at home for Manchester City. As good as Liverpool has been at home, their road numbers seem to fall drastically from expected goal differential of +6.9 at home down to +0.3 on the road. This is where you find the plus value because at home Manchester City has been anything but great, with an expected goal differential of -1.1, one win and one loss. Since the debacle against Aston Villa, Liverpool has managed consecutive road shutouts to top-tier teams in Ajax and Atalanta, and they are allowing 1.5 expected goals or fewer in six consecutive games across all competition.

Manchester City is allowing 0.5 expected goals or fewer in five consecutive games. This EPL clash of titans should be an exciting game and close one, but I give the advantage to Liverpool. I think the role players surrounding Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane are in far better form than those helping Kevin De Bruyne. Also of note is the clear advantage Liverpool has at the wingback position, and Diogo Jota is a welcome addition, having immediately paid dividends for the EPL’s first-ranked offense. Having considered the recent overall form for Manchester City, plus what looks like the return of Gabriel Jesus, I will take the large wager on a Liverpool win or draw, with some juice on the Liverpool moneyline at +240.

Leicester City vs. Wolverhampton: Total Goals over 2.5 (+145)

This total feels too low with two of the better goal scorers in the EPL in Jamie Vardy and Raul Jimenez. Leicester City has the third-best expected goal differential in the EPL at +4.3. At home they have struggled, getting shut out by Aston Villa and West Ham. I do not expect this to continue, as this team is riding the core that put them at an expected goal differential of +8.7 at home a season ago. Both shutouts did not include Vardy and or James Maddison.

Wolverhampton have been a disaster on the road, with an expected goal differential of -1.6. They have only been shut out twice across all competitions on the year, and the potent offense around Jimenez of Pedro Neto and Daniel Podence should help them find a goal in this one. I like Leicester to take the game 2-1 but find better value at the over +145 than a Leicester moneyline play at +125. Both plays are on the board, however.

Bonus EPL Betting Picks/Other Leagues

EPL: West Brom vs. Tottenham: Tottenham -1 (-115)

Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich: Borussia Dortmund Win/Draw Double (+108)

La Liga: Atletico Madrid vs. Cadiz: Cadiz Win/Draw Double (+195)


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Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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