In the EPL’s first week back in action, I view the teams as being in better form than previous years, having just a short break from the conclusion of the previous year to replace friendlies. Favorite plays will be picks where I agree with the results driven by my betting model and I feel comfortable placing at least a unit.
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Favorite EPL Plays
Fulham vs. Arsenal: Arsenal Moneyline +165
Fulham arrives back in the EPL, but they were not the top team in the Championship League. They finished with the fourth-best offense led by Alexandar Mitrovic but also allowed over a goal a game. Their offense is good, but that was in the second tier, and they carry the core of that team which saw them post the fourth-worst expected goals at 39.7 two years ago before relegation from the EPL. Their defense in the EPL was the worst with an expected goals of 65.2.
Arsenal, on the other hand, was trending up in form and took home some silverware, winning the FA Cup. With Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang leading the club once again and the addition of Willian from Chelsea, the offense can only get better. They finished last season with the fifth-best expected goals at 49.2. Their defense started out shaky but finished the year by only twice allowing more than one goal in 10 games and posting three clean sheets.
West Ham vs. Newcastle: West Ham Moneyline +115
Newcastle will see improvement with additions like Ryan Fraser to boost their offensive productivity. Fraser will not be in this match after failing his physical, and the rest of the club remains pretty intact from a season ago. There is the possibility that Callum Wilson will be ready to go, but he also is coming off a year where he failed to produce for the now-relegated Bournemouth side. Newcastle produced an EPL-worst 33 expected goals and the fourth-worst expected goals against of 58.5.
West Ham produced a mid-tier offense last season with an expected goals of 46. Their defense is still a question mark, and Newcastle should be able to find the back of the net in this one, but Michail Antonio found his form in their late-season push to avoid relegation, and Jarrod Bowen has come on strong for the club. We should see Robert Snodgrass, who adds another offensive weapon, back in the picture if his post-hiatus form returns. This should be a high-scoring affair, and I give the edge to West Ham.
EPL Futures
Better Finish Chelsea vs. Manchester United: Chelsea -139
There are rumors that Jadon Sancho is coming to Manchester United. That has yet to happen, and Chelsea has already brought over star power to help their rising stars of Mason Mount and Christian Pulisic. Hakim Ziyech and Timo Werner should greatly improve the Chelsea offense that finished third in the EPL with an expected goals of 66.7. Manchester United finished fifth in expected goals with 59.8, and both defenses finished in the top four.
Bruno Fernandez was able to revive this Manchester club, but the inexperience and youth up front still looked the part during critical matches. Chelsea brought in the second-leading scorer from another top league in Werner, who accounted for 45% of RB Leipzig’s overall scoring, the second-best offense in Bundesliga at the time. Chelsea also has another young Bundesliga star in Kai Havertz on the way. If and when Sancho arrives to Manchester United, Chelsea could have already built enough of a points lead in the standings.
EPL/La Liga Bonus Futures
Real Madrid to Win La Liga: -134
Sevilla to Finish Top Four in La Liga: -139
Manchester City to Win EPL: -122
Better Finish, Arsenal vs Tottenham: Arsenal -139
EPL/La Liga Dark Horse Futures
Chelsea to Win EPL: +900
Sevilla to Win La Liga: +2,500
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