EPL Game Week 3 Picks | Everton + Chelsea | 9/23

In the EPL’s first weeks back in action, I view the teams as being in better form than previous years, having just a short break from the conclusion of the previous year to replace friendlies. Favorite plays will be EPL picks where I agree with the results driven by my betting model and I feel comfortable placing at least a unit.


Related EPL Content


Favorite EPL Picks

Crystal Palace vs. Everton: Everton Moneyline (+105)

West Bromwich Albion vs. Chelsea: Chelsea Moneyline (-278)

Crystal Palace has looked solid to start and their defense, even going back to last year, is sitting mid-tier in the EPL in expected goals at 51.3. Everton defense is slightly better at 48.3. The difference comes down to the offense, and Everton has the clear advantage, posting an expected goals of 49.3, while Crystal Palace finished second worst in the EPL at 34. If you look at the first games for each club, at first glance you would think Crystal did well breaking down Manchester United’s defense. This was not the case, as a penalty followed by a retake on the missed PK allowed the 2-0 lead. I like Everton’s back line a lot more than Manchester United’s, and their offense is prime to start clicking with the young core of Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. I like Everton to take this game 2-0.

Chelsea was put in their place by Liverpool. That was not a shock, but the inability of Chelsea to convert a single goal is. The star-studded Chelsea team still needs time to click and a significant drop in competition could do the trick. Chelsea finished last season third in the EPL in expected goals at 66.6 and fourth in expected goals against at 37.9. West Bromwich will go into this match without one of their better defenders after he received a red card. Everton exposed the promoted squad as not being ready for the EPL last week, and Chelsea should do the same. There is no real ROI in taking the Chelsea moneyline. That is why I would add it as a boost to one of the other two games. You can increase value by taking Chelsea and lay a goal if you choose.

Sheffield United vs. Leeds United: Leeds United Moneyline (+162)

Sheffield United comes into this match without a core piece to the defense in John Egan, who received a red card. Their defense played well, but that was also against one of the poorest offenses in the EPL in Aston Villa, who produced an expected goals last year of 40. Sheffield’s defense plays well and finished last season seventh in the EPL with an expected goals against of 47.9. Their offense is suspect, and with the constant rotation of some midfielders and attack, there is reason to believe their bottom-tier output of 41.5 expected goals will continue. Leeds is here to stay, and their offense is producing goals against even last year’s champions in Liverpool. I do not think Leeds will rout Sheffield, because they still have a defensive first formation, but I like Leeds to take this game 2-1.

There are a few ways to play this. I would not parlay these three matches but rather round robin it. The straight-up on Everton and Leeds United are the straight-up core plays for a unit each. Adding Chelsea to one of them for extra juice if you choose. vs.

Bonus EPL Plays/Other Leagues

Liga MX: Juarez FC vs. Atlas: Juarez FC Moneyline (+110)

La Liga: Real Betis vs. Real Madrid: Real Madrid Moneyline (-125)

EPL: West Ham United vs. Wolverhampton Wolves: Wolverhampton Moneyline (+100)

Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: RB Leipzig Moneyline (+120)


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Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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